Gold at $1925: key investor tactics
Kitco Commentaries | Opinions, Ideas and Markets Talk
Featuring views and opinions written by market professionals, not staff journalists.
Jan 17, 2023
- In the financial markets, history shows that rather than lots of exciting predictions, mundane preparation for surprise is a much better tool for building immense wealth… wealth that is sustained.
- Double-click to enlarge. In early 2022, it was unknown if the Dow would tumble to 30,000.
- What was known by savvy investors, is that if it did go there, those who bought would have incredibly high odds of making significant profits very quickly… and of course that's what has happened.
- Double-click to enlarge. It's also unknown whether the price of bitcoin now rises above $21,500 or continues to stall here.
- What is known is that if the price drops to $18,500 it's highly likely to have a nice rally from there.
- Most gold bugs are not too interested in crypto or the stock market (and rightly so), but the same "prepare for surprise" tactical approach to the gold market is the key to investor success.
- Double-click to enlarge this gold chart. Will gold have a meaningful pullback now? Well, it's rallied more than $300/oz from the $1610 area low, so of course that's possible, but it may not happen.
- If it does, investors could buy at $1880, but that's only about a $50/oz price sale from the $1930 area high. A deeper reaction to support at $1808-$1780 would be more likely to produce a meaningful rally.
- In the big picture, it doesn't really matter whether America or China has a recession or a boom.
- Institutional money flows based on economic cycles may determine whether gold moves to $1960 or to $1808 next, but these cycles should not have any material effect on core positions held by investors.
- The bottom line: Gold is the ultimate asset and the ultimate money. If governments use fiat money, investors need to own lots of gold because the governments will inevitably spend excess fiat and borrow too much of it, devaluing the purchasing power of the citizens over time.
- Double-click to enlarge. The big picture for gold is bright. As America fades as the lead empire of the world, and China and India rise, the massive populations and gold orientation of those nations means the big picture for gold will only become brighter.
- There will always be ebb and flow with spending, debt, inflation, and growth, in all nations. Central bank and government policy will change to reflect the ebb and flow, producing gold price rallies and declines.
- Investors can build significant wealth buying gold and silver stocks on the declines and have lots of fun selling them on the rallies.
- The key to success is of course to buy them not just on declines, but at the price zones where the odds of a rally are very high.
- Double-click to enlarge. At some point, gold will rise above $2080 and begin a magnificent journey towards $3000.
- In the meantime, there will be lots of $100, $200, and $300 declines that are just big picture "noise".
- The great news is that investors can buy their favourite miners (or silver bullion) on these declines, and have a solid chance of quickly making 20%, 50%, and even 100%!
- Double-click to enlarge. Although it's gone nowhere against US fiat recently, silver has rallied about 30% from the last big buy zone of $1610.
- Core positions should not be sold but trading profits are good and can be booked.
- Double-click to enlarge this fabulous GOAU chart. It's unknown where GOAU would be if gold dips to $1880 or $1808, but $16 or $15 are good guesses, given the support that is there.
- What about the upside? Well, if gold surges to $1960, $2000, or $2080 instead of declining now, GOAU is likely to be trading between $19 and $22 and investors can sell with good profits there.
- Double-click to enlarge. GDXJ sports a massive saucer pattern and while the current zone is good for modest profit booking, the saucer keeps expanding.
- The saucer target is now $55!
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.