Contributed Commentaries
CPM Trade Signal - January 31, 2023
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Time Stamp
Prices as of 10:00 a.m. EST 31 January 2023 $1,940.10 (Basis the April 2023 Comex contract).
Recommendation: Sell
Initial Target Price / Range: $1,910
Initial Timeframe: 31 January 2023 to 3 February 2023
CPM Group’s previous sell recommendation failed to reach its $1,875 target. There has been strong support for gold prices on expectations of a recession and a consequent reversal in the Fed’s monetary policy during the fourth quarter of this year. This market expectation seems to be largely baked into prices at this time. There is a risk to the present bullishness in gold prices, from the Fed reiterating its plan to keep rates steady through 2023, during the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on today and 1 February. This risk could weigh on gold prices over the next couple of days. While a trend reversal in gold prices is not expected, a pull back to $1,910 or even $1,900 should not be ruled out. Following the FOMC meeting, the next key piece of data will be January employment data due for release on 3 February.
CPM has one-month, three-month ranges and eight-quarter quarterly price projections with greater discussion of the factors behind CPM’s analyses provided in CPM’s monthly subscription service, the Precious Metals Advisory.
While short-term trade recommendations provide high risk – high reward opportunities for investors, it is difficult to capture the complex web of factors affecting precious metals prices and the nuanced CPM analyses of these factors that goes into our firm’s price projections. In addition to these short-term outlooks, CPM Group provides clients enhanced trade recommendations that include one and three month price projections, as part of our Retail Investor Program. Contact CPM at info@cpmgroup.com for details.
Notes:
Initial Target Prices and Timeframes are just that: Initial. If CPM does not issue a new Recommendation during or after that time it indicates that CPM maintains the posture in the most recent Trade Recommendation.
Position may be closed out once target price is reached, within the noted discretion or until CPM provides new trade recommendation. CPM may have reported to have closed out of prior trade recommendation at its discretion before publicly publishing new trade recommendation due to processing time.
Discretion should be allowed at +/- 0.20% of the price at the time each TR is issued from the target.
CPM’s preferred investment strategies use physical, futures, forwards, and options.
Disclaimer - Past performance is no indication or guarantee of anticipated future profits, and neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor CPM Group can accept any liability or responsibility for any loss suffered as a result of gold price fluctuations. Gold as a commodity is not a specified investment for the purpose of giving advice under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. Therefore this trade recommendation does not give rise to rights to claim compensation under the Financial Services Compensation Scheme. CPM Group is a registered CTA with the U.S. NFA and CFTC. At times the principals and associates of CPM Group may have positions in the precious metals, commodity, and equities markets. CPM Group also manages investment and industrial positions in markets for its clients.
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