S&P 500, Energy, Gold, and Bitcoin Futures Overview from Mooranalytics.com for 1/30/23
Kitco Commentaries | Opinions, Ideas and Markets Talk
Featuring views and opinions written by market professionals, not staff journalists.
S&P 500 (H)
On a higher timeframe basis: On 1/18/22 the break below the 4629.25 line warned of decent pressure and negated the medium- term bullish trend we were in since 3/23/20. On 8/22/22 we left a medium-term bearish reversal above, that has brought in 676.75 of pressure from the 4178.75 open. These are ON HOLD. On a lower timeframe basis: I warned of possible exhaustion at 3531.25-04.75 which had the potential to trigger a bullish correction with minimum target of 3793.00—we held this with a 3502.00 low and have bounced 678.00, taking the target out; but the higher timeframe minimum target is 4190.50—we came just shy of this with a 4180.00 high. I warned if the 4180.00 high held, it would likely start a bearish correction to exceed 224.00 from the high—we have seen 391.50. This is ON HOLD. The trade above 3851.94 (-.37 per/hour) warned of renewed strength—we have seen 257.25. The trade above 3874.02(-42 per/hour) has brought in 235.25 of strength. These are OFF HOLD. On a lower timeframe basis: We held 3964.15-54.00 exhaustion with a 3963.25 low and rallied 146.00. We came shy of exhaustion I had listed on the upside at 4117.75 with a 4109.25 high and rolled over, although I did not have a sell suggestion against this. Decent trade below 3952.39 (+.28 per/hour starting at 9:30am) will warn of decent pressure for 162.00 (+), but it would be preferable to see a bounce off of this line before breaking below it added credibility. If we break below here decently and back above decently, look for decent strength.
On a higher timeframe basis: I cautioned on 8/16/18 the break above $1,179.7-$1,183.7 warned of renewed strength. We have seen $905.5. The break above $1,347.0 projected this upward $80 minimum, $320 (+) maximum. We have attained $744.2. These are OFF HOLD. We held major exhaustion at $2,071.6-93.2 with a $2,089.2 high and rolled over $46.7. We rolled over from $2,079.6 for $456.6. These are ON HOLD. On a lower timeframe basis: The break above $1,641.2 (+1 tic per/hour) has brought in $302.6 of strength. The solid trade above $1,679.5 (-1 tic per/hour) put this above a major formation --we are projected upward $80 minimum. We have attained $264.3 so far. The break above $1,769.4 has brought in $174.4 of strength. The break above $1,860.0 warned of renewed strength—we have seen $83.8. These are ON HOLD. The failure below $1,959.6 (+.5 of a tic per/hour) warned of pressure—we attained $26.6 in the (J) equivalent to that of (G).
On a higher timeframe basis: The roll over on 11/10/21 put this into a bearish trend. I warned the selloff should exceed $13,000 from the high of $69,355—we have seen $54,430 of this. We held exhaustion on a bullish correction of the move down at $59,545 and rolled over $44,620. We have come off $36,080 from the $51,005 close. On a lower timeframe basis: The trade below $34,830 put this below a significant bearish formation that projected this downward $13,000 minimum, $35,000 (+) maximum. We have attained $19,905. We held exhaustion at $25,265-495 with a $25,270 high and rolled over $10,345. These are ON HOLD. The break back above $16,275-60 has brought in $7,805 of strength. The trade above $17,245 (+3 per/hour) warns of continued higher trade—we have seen $6,835. The trade above $17,935 has brought in $6,145 of strength. Trade above $25,270-350 will be an additional sign of strength. Decent trade below $23,435 (+16 per/hour) will put this below a steep formation that will warn of pressure; but if we break below decently and back above decently, look for decent short covering. Trade below $21,795-400 will warn of pressure.
Crude Oil (WTI) (H)
On a macro basis: On 4/29/20 we left a bullish reversal below—we have seen $115.13 from that open at $15.37 in the (N). We took out a major trendline at $55.15, which warned of significant strength. We have seen $75.35. The break above $57.45-8.02 projected this upward $56 minimum, $89 (+) maximum. We attained $72.48. These are OFF HOLD. On a shorter-term basis: Trade below $119.15 brought in $49.07 of pressure. The trade below $111.00 brought in $40.92 of pressure. The trade below $97.18 projected this down $8.30 (+) maximum. These are OFF HOLD. We held exhaustion below with a $70.31 low and bounced $12.35. The trade above $79.07 projects this upward $7.20 minimum, $24.60 (+) maximum; but if we break back below decently, look for decent pressure—this will come in at $76.95 today. These are ON HOLD. The trade below $80.58 (+2.5 tics per/hour) warned of pressure--we finally rolled over Friday. Decent trade above $80.51-61 (+1.2 tics per/hour) will warn of decent strength. Decent trade above $81.97-2.06 (-.3 of a tic per/hour) will project this upward $3.30 minimum, $8.00 (+) maximum.
Natural Gas (G)
On a higher timeframe basis: The trade below 8208 warned of decent pressure. We attained $5.528 so far. I warned decent trade below 7188 would be a renewed sign of weakness—we came off $4.508 tics. On 12/19 we left a moderate bearish formation above. I would NOTE: The trade below 5136-4993 projects this downward $2.270 minimum, $4.770 (+) maximum, which could be seen within 3 month’s time—we have traded $2.313 lower. On a shorter-term basis: The trade below 3016 (-2.5 tics per/hour) has brought in 336 tics of the pressure warned about. A maintained gap higher will leave a minor bullish reversal below. Decent trade back above where this comes in at 2818 (-2.5 tics per/hour starting at 8:00am) should bring in decent strength. Decent trade above 2902 (-.7 of a tic per/hour starting at 8:00am) should bring in additional strength. I would note that we are holding possible exhaustion below at 2592-83 with a 2612 low, and have bounced 133 tics.
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