S&P 500, energy, gold, and bitcoin futures overview from Mooranalytics.com for 2/17/23
Kitco Commentaries | Opinions, Ideas and Markets Talk
Featuring views and opinions written by market professionals, not staff journalists.
S&P 500 (H)
On a higher timeframe basis: On 1/18/22 the break below the 4629.25 line warned of decent pressure and negated the medium- term bullish trend we were in since 3/23/20. On 8/22/22 we left a medium-term bearish reversal above, that has brought in 676.75 of pressure from the 4178.75 open. These are ON HOLD. I warned of possible exhaustion at 3531.25-04.75 which had the potential to trigger a bullish correction with minimum target of 3793.00, and a higher timeframe target of 4190.50—we held this with a 3502.00 low and have bounced 706.50, taking out both targets. These are ON HOLD. On a lower timeframe basis: The trade above 3851.75warned of renewed strength—we have seen 356.75. We held 3964.15-54.00 exhaustion with a 3963.25 low and rallied 245.25. These are ON HOLD. We are in a bearish correction/trend against the move up from 378850. Decent trade above 4110.72 (+41 per/hour starting at 9:30am) will warn of decent strength, and possibly a run for 4208.50 (although this is not a projection necessarily). If this is a correction, which I think is likely, there are areas of possible exhaustion at 4048.00-26.75, 3998.50-83.00, 3949.00-47.50, and 3878.50-57.25. I would also NOTE that we have entered into the ideal timeframe for one of these to hold, and if we do this could start a whole new medium timeframe bull structure that could last for months.
On a higher timeframe basis: I cautioned on 8/16/18 the break above $1,179.7-$1,183.7 warned of renewed strength. We have seen $905.5. The break above $1,347.0 projected this upward $80 minimum, $320 (+) maximum. We have attained $744.2. These are ON HOLD. We held major exhaustion at $2,071.6-93.2 with a $2,089.2 high and rolled over $46.7. We rolled over from $2,079.6 for $456.6. These are ON HOLD. On a lower timeframe basis: The break above $1,641.2 (+1 tic per/hour) has brought in $334 of strength. The solid trade above $1,679.5 (-1 tic per/hour) put this above a major formation --we are projected upward $80 minimum. We have attained $295.7 so far. The break above $1,769.4 has brought in $205.8 of strength. The break above $1,860.0 warned of renewed strength—we have seen $115.2. These are ON HOLD. The trade below $1,966.7 (+.6 of a tic per/hour) has brought in $139.0 of the decent pressure warned about. The trade below $1,935.3 (+2 tics per/hour) projected this downward an additional $45 (+)—we have attained $107.6 so far. The break below $1,886.2 (+1.4 tics per/hour) warns of decent pressure—we have seen $58.5 so far. I would be aware of possible exhaustion at $1,826.1, $1,816.9, $1,800.3-796.7 (a key area), and lower. We are holding the upper of these currently with a $1,827.7 low. Decent trade above $1,842.7 (-5 per/hour starting at 6:00am) will warn of decent short covering, but this is steep to lean against—however, if we break above here decently and back below decently, I would lean against it as a short. Decent trade above $1,845.1 (-1.3 per/hour starting at 6:00am) just above should bring in decent short covering, and is an easier slope to lean against.
On a higher timeframe basis: The roll over on 11/10/21 put this into a bearish trend. I warned the selloff should exceed $13,000 from the high of $69,355—we have seen $54,430 of this. The trade below $63,285 (+15 per/hour) has brought in $48,360 of the pressure warned about below. We have come off $36,080 from the $51,005 close. These are ON HOLD. On a lower timeframe basis: The trade below $34,830 put this below a significant bearish formation that projected this downward $13,000 minimum, $35,000 (+) maximum. We have attained $19,905. These are OFF HOLD. The break back above $16,275-60 has brought in $9,070 of strength. The trade above $17,245 (+3 per/hour) warned of continued higher trade—we have seen $7,745. These are ON HOLD. I cautioned we were either A.) starting a new, lower timeframe bullish structure, or B.) in the last stretch of the move up from the lows—I think the later of the two. This has given confirmation by holding exhaustion at $25,019-279 with a $25,345 high, failing back below $24,385, taking out the trendline below and rolling over $1,005 into a likely bearish correction. I warned if this holds and it starts a bearish correction, it should exceed $3,070 from the high—which would make the minimum target $22,275. Trade above $25,270-350 will be a sign of renewed strength.
Crude Oil (WTI) (J)
We settled in a bull leg, but I would disregard this. Settlement below $79.92 will start this in a bear leg. On a macro basis: On 4/29/20 we left a bullish reversal below—we have seen $115.13 from that open at $15.37 in the (N). On 5/5/20 we left a medium-term bullish reversal below. We have seen $107.05 from $23.45. We held exhaustion with a $34.04 low and rallied $96.46. The trade above $45.21 warned of renewed strength—we have seen $85.29 of this. The break above $47.92 has brought in $82.58 of the strength warned about above. The trade above $52.24 has brought in $78.26 of the strength warned about above. We took out a major trendline at $55.15, which warned of significant strength. We have seen $75.35. The break above $57.45-8.02 projected this upward $56 minimum, $89 (+) maximum. We attained $72.48. The trade above $59.50 brought in $71.00 of strength. We have seen $61.02 from $69.48. The trade above $69.70 has brought in $60.80. The trade above $71.36 attained $59.14. These are ON HOLD. On a shorter-term basis: Trade below $119.15 brought in $49.07 of pressure. Trade below $115.90 projected this downward $8.85 (+). We attained $45.82. The trade below $104.48 projected this down $17.40 (+) maximum. We attained $34.40. The trade below $99.24 brought in $29.16 of pressure. The trade below $97.18 projected this down $8.30 (+) maximum. We attained $27.58. These are ON HOLD. The trade above $75.76 (-2 tics per/hour) projects this upward $3.20 (+). We attained $5.28. I warned today has a good likelihood of seeing range expansion. This looks weak coming out of the gate. A maintained gap lower will warn of renewed pressure.
Natural Gas (G)
We settled in a bear leg. Settlement above 2514 will start this in a bull leg. On a higher timeframe basis: The failure back below 8440 brought in $6.099 of pressure (in previous contracts). The trade below 8208 warned of decent pressure. We attained $5.867 so far. I warned decent trade below 7188 would be a renewed sign of weakness—we came off $4.847. On 12/19 we left a moderate bearish formation above. I would NOTE: The trade below 5136-4993 projects this downward $2.270 minimum, $4.700 (+) maximum—the maximum of which could be seen within another 1.5 month’s time. We have traded $2.652 lower. On a shorter-term basis: The trade below 3016 (-2.5 tics per/hour) has brought in 675 tics of the pressure warned about. Decent trade below 2398-93 will project this downward 240 tics (+); but if we break below here decently and back above decently, look for decent short covering.
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