Even higher terminal
Kitco Commentaries | Opinions, Ideas and Markets Talk
Featuring views and opinions written by market professionals, not staff journalists.
S&P 500 held in the 3,980 – 4,015 range yesterday, namely having defended the 3,980 support, and making it back above 4,015 solidly. The trip towards 4,045 had though been cancelled a bit too abruptly as those believing in Fed's no / soft landing fantasies while financial conditions continue inordinately easing in the face of central bank tightening left and right.
Last week's PPI and naturally also the calculation changes to CPI, were a mere preview as much as this week's data from Sweden. Today's core PCE (the measure that the Fed places solid emphasis on) came truly outside the expected range – and that triggers yet another immediate and significant change of market expectations as to the degree of Fed tightening ahead regardless of how pressed the consumer or job market get.
That means 3,980 is now overhead resistance in S&P 500, and 3,910 can be easily reached either today or on Monday as another plunge in bonds looms, and copper with silver confirm.
Key chart (courtesy of www.stockcharts.com), universally relevant is bonds (together with the dollar that should close at at least 105.40 today so as to confirm the risk-off shift as likely to continue through Monday on account of the sheer power of newly recognizing perhaps even 50bp in Mar with two more hikes before Jun is over (short end of the curve never lies), and Fed funds rate really closer to 6% than 5.50%, the latter having seemed outrageous as late as only one week ago).
Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there (or on Telegram if you prefer), but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.
So, make sure you're signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls.
Thank you for having read today's free analysis, which is a small part of my site's daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates.
While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica's Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves.
Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!