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Gold prices decline after reaching $2000 yesterday as banking fears ease

Commentaries & Views

Yesterday gold futures surged to the highest value of 2023, however after trading to a high of $2014 gold basis is most active April 2023 contract closed well below the intraday high. The high achieved yesterday was not only unsustainable on Monday but led to a deep price decline today. Gold futures are currently trading off by 1.98% or $39.20 taking the most active contract to $1943.60. The decline of $39 today can be attributed to market sentiment shifting regarding the banking crisis as fears diminished amongst traders, gold prices also eased ahead of Wednesday's rate hike decision by the Federal Reserve.

The Fed began its today FOMC meeting today which will conclude tomorrow. According to the CME's FedWatch tool, there is an 87.1% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 25-bps or ¼%, with a 12.9% probability that the Federal Reserve will pause and announce that they are not raising rates higher this month.

On Friday gold futures closed at $1972 in New York trading, however during the remainder of Globex trading which ends at 6:00 PM EST on Friday gold traded above $1990. This was a net gain of approximately $70 on the day. This was followed by yesterday's new record yearly high at $2014. However, the Japanese candlestick that formed yesterday contained a very small real body (the price between the open and closing price), with exaggerated upper and lower wicks (the vertical lines above and below the real body of a Japanese candlestick).

This type of Japanese candlestick is called a "doji" or a star when it gaps above the real body of the Japanese candlestick that occurs before it. If there is a gap between formed after the star it creates a Japanese candlestick pattern labeled as a "Three River Evening Star".

The "Three River Evening Star" is a Japanese candlestick pattern composed of three candles. The criteria for proper identification of this pattern occurs only when a stock or commodity is in an uptrend.  This reversal pattern begins with a long green candle (a candle that closes above its opening price), followed by a star that gaps away from the green body, and the third day is a long red candlestick that must gap below the body of the star. The pattern can reveal a potential top or key reversal from bullish market sentiment to bearish market sentiment.

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Wishing you as always good trading,

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