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Recession trades to the rescue

Commentaries & Views

S&P 500 finally turned south in line with the medium-term outlook, in reaction to the wildly underwhelming JOLTS data. Job market deterioration is finally getting reflected as per the Mar/Apr timeing for issues to arrive that I discussed earlier. Unemployment claims rising and finally non-farm payrolls would come to reflect that.

Today's employment change is first such a sign, but all eyes are on Friday's non-farm payrolls. The bears are aligning for a pleasant surprise as buy the dippers are bound to get increasingly overpowered. Expect more risk-off in bonds and the surge in precious metals to continue at its own pace higher (my star pick for 2023).

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Let's move right into the charts (all courtesy of

Gold, Silver and Miners

Very fine recession reaction – lower yields sending down the dollar as the Fed can't remain this restrictive, the market thinking goes. Silver doing well as inflation is undefeated.

Crude Oil

Oil is consolidating high ground, and would be far less hurt than copper through the recession jitters. Well, I say jitters, but markets obviously have to overcome the misguided no landing first. In doing so, they may very well start questioning the soft landing too...

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