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Job market spark

Commentaries & Views

S&P 500 bears didn't disappoint yesterday, remaining in control as the focus shifts to recession signs. Both ISM services PMI and non-farm payrolls employment change data continued on Tuesday's note, and the short end of the curve is reaching for fresh lows, with 10-y yield well below those (at 3.30% already).

This is not what any risk-on drive thanks to stabilization in financials looks like – the deposit outflows continue, and Fed isn't capitulating in its still tight drive, exposing the prior rally to be only a bear market one (you knew). Job market deterioration is getting increasingly confirmed not just through this week's unemployment claims, but notably an even higher figure revision the week before. The Mar-Apr time window for deterioration discussed, is clearly here.

Risk-off day ahead but look for real assets to keep showing resilience...

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Let's move right into the charts (all courtesy of

Gold, Silver and Miners

Fine show of strength in not really retreating – precious metals are digesting the emergence of recession trades coupled with oil returning back above $80, and not about to retreat really. Expect copper to remain likewise resilient while many S&P 500 stocks (oil stocks and miners would be of course an exception) would start getting under increasing selling pressure on poor earnings, economy and hawkish Fed outlook.

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