Hawaii Six O - Gary Wagner
Gold futures trade to $1993.40 and recover back above $2000
Kitco Commentaries | Opinions, Ideas and Markets Talk
Featuring views and opinions written by market professionals, not staff journalists.
As of 4:25 PM EST, gold futures basis the most active June 2023 contract is trading down $8.50 or 0.42% and fixed at $2007.20. In earlier trading market participants actively moved gold below the key psychological level of $2000, taking June gold to its intraday low of $1993.40.
Today’s price decline in gold can be 100% attributed to dollar strength. Currently, the dollar is up 0.54%, however, when compared to gold’s decline of -0.41% investors are bidding the precious yellow metal fractionally higher.
Spot gold is also trading lower with dollar strength being 100% responsible for the decline. Currently, spot gold is fixed at $1994.40 a decline of -0.45%. However, on closer inspection dollar strength accounted for $-11.00, and normal trading add + $1.90 resulting in today’s $9.10 decline, according to the Kitco Gold Index (KGX).
Recent statements by members of the Federal Reserve have maintained its current hawkish demeanor underscoring the need for the Fed to continue raising interest rates. On Friday speaking at a conference in San Antonio Texas Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said, “Because financial conditions have not significantly tightened, the labor market continues to be strong and quite tight, and inflation is far above target, so monetary policy needs to be tightened further.”
Governor Waller called the most recent March CPI report “mixed news” that indicated that the Federal Reserve has not made much progress on its goal to reduce inflation. He referenced core consumer prices rising 0.4% or higher for the last four consecutive months as proof that the Federal Reserve needs to continue its aggressive stance of rate hikes.
It must be noted that some economists including Mohamed El-Erian and BlackRock are convinced that inflation is not on track anywhere near the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%. In a note, a strategist at BlackRock said, "Inflation in the US is not on track to settle anywhere close to the Federal Reserve's 2% target, in our view. That was reinforced by March inflation data,"
This is in line with CME’s FedWatch tool that reveals there is an 86.7% probability that the Federal Reserve will implement another rate hike of ¼% which would take their terminal benchmark rate to between 5% and 5 ¼%.
Persistently high inflation will continue to be highly supportive of gold as pricing builds a base and eventual support at $2000 per ounce.
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Wishing you as always good trading,
Gary S. Wagner