CPM Trade Signal - April 21, 2023
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Featuring views and opinions written by market professionals, not staff journalists.
Prices as of 10:39 a.m. EST 21 April 2023 $1,993.50 (Basis the June 2023 Comex contract).
Recommendation: Stand Aside
Initial Target Price / Range: $1,980 - $2,050
Initial Timeframe: 21 April 2023 to 5 May 2023
Gold prices have been retreating from their recent peak of $2,063.40 reached on 13 April. Initial support to prices came from the banking fallout of a few banks in the U.S. and Europe. The banking concerns appear to be subsiding, however. The absence of supportive headlines could weigh on gold in the weeks ahead. This said, over the past month prices dips have been taken as buying opportunities and surprised market participants on the upside. On the flip side, a break below support levels could become selling opportunities and push prices sharply lower. This may not happen yet in April, but could with force in May, as the saying goes, “Sell in May and go away.”
As a result CPM expects gold to continue to trade within its recent range in the final week of April, in part reflecting recent investor buying patterns and other short-term precious metals market conditions next week. After next week, into May, the FOMC meeting, an expected 25 basis point interest rate increase, and a further short-term reduction in market concerns about short-term economic conditions may lead gold prices to decline.
CPM’s trade strategy thus would be to not sell now, but see if gold rises toward $2,025 - $2,050 later next week, at which point selling may make sense. In the absence of any such increase in gold prices next week, the rationale for selling in expectation of lower prices over the next few months is that much stronger.
CPM has one-month, three-month ranges and eight-quarter quarterly price projections with greater discussion of the factors behind CPM’s analyses provided in CPM’s monthly subscription service, the Precious Metals Advisory.
While short-term trade recommendations provide high risk – high reward opportunities for investors, it is difficult to capture the complex web of factors affecting precious metals prices and the nuanced CPM analyses of these factors that goes into our firm’s price projections. In addition to these short-term outlooks, CPM Group provides clients enhanced trade recommendations that include one and three month price projections, as part of our Retail Investor Program. Contact CPM at firstname.lastname@example.org for details.
Initial Target Prices and Timeframes are just that: Initial. If CPM does not issue a new Recommendation during or after that time it indicates that CPM maintains the posture in the most recent Trade Recommendation.
Position may be closed out once target price is reached, within the noted discretion or until CPM provides new trade recommendation. CPM may have reported to have closed out of prior trade recommendation at its discretion before publicly publishing new trade recommendation due to processing time.
Discretion should be allowed at +/- 0.20% of the price at the time each TR is issued from the target.
CPM’s preferred investment strategies use physical, futures, forwards, and options.
CPM Group wants to thank the following companies for helping us make these short Trade Signals available free of charge, and for their commitment to providing good information in opaque and asymmetrical commodities markets.