A slapstick comedy & gold
Kitco Commentaries | Opinions, Ideas and Markets Talk
Featuring views and opinions written by market professionals, not staff journalists.
May 2, 2023
- The antics of American slapstick comedians like Buster Keaton, Stan Laurel, and Oliver Hardy were incredibly hilarious, but the ridiculous antics of the US government are even funnier.
- The use of the term "debt ceiling", instead of "endlessly rising debt floor" is just one such example.
- As America's macabre government flails away with another failed and debt-funded war (this time against Russia), the nation's head of the treasury rants that the government needs even more debt than the insane amount it already has.
- Western gold bugs appear to have three choices: get arrested for insurrection, go insane, or hold as much gold as the citizens of China and India hold, and laugh.
- I've chosen lots of gold and lots of laughter, and for more end of US empire comedy. For all practical intents and purposes,today likely marks the de facto end of the US government's hideous scheme to financially destroy millions of Mid-East citizens so they would engage in civil war and violent regime change.
- In the West, silly mainstream investors sell their gold when there is good economic news. In China and India, good economic growth is celebrated with large purchases of gold.
- In the coming decades, most of the world's growth will come from gold-oriented citizens in the East, and gold bugs in the West will profit from that… as well as from the comedic demise of the US government.
- In the 1970s there were pauses in the hiking cycle, and there will be pauses in this multi-decade hiking cycle too.
- As IMF director Al notes, each restart of the hiking causes incrementally more damage to the economy, and the ECB is set to continue hiking after the Fed finally does pause.
- That will cause the dollar to fall against the euro, which is good for gold.
- Double-click to enlarge. For the US dollar index, the 100 zone is big support and it coincides with $2000 resistance for gold.
- A dollar rally and a gold price sale are realistic scenarios in the short-term, but that may not happen and even if it does, it's likely to be the last buying opportunity for gold in the sub $2000 zone for a hundred years!
- What about a China-brokered truce in the Ukraine war? Well, that's possible and likely longer-term. It would enrage the war mongering maniacs in the US government… and create a bigger price sale for gold. As noted, Western gold bugs are evolving… most are ready to buy price sales with confidence rather than selling into them with fear.
- Against the ruble, the dollar's rally has stalled. The 86 level is important; a rise above there would suggest no truce will happen, and the war could intensify. The 2021-2025 war cycle is only at about the halfway mark right now. Citizens of the world need to be wary (and own lots of gold) of potential war-oriented events that could occur between now and 2025.
- Next, double-click to enlarge this UNG natural gas ETF chart. I highlight this chart for two reasons. First, at current prices, investors have significant value staring them in the face.
- Second, with the Nord Stream pipelines destroyed, Euro zone citizens now depend on US companies for natural gas… gas that is priced much higher than the Russian gas that was pumped to them economically and without issue before the war.
- While natural gas prices have recently imploded, Euro citizens haven't seen the price drop that Americans got, and a major rise in the price now would create mind blogging food and fuel inflation, and riots.
- What's next for gold investors? Double-click to enlarge this key weekly chart. With Indian jewellers laying off thousands of workers and commercial COMEX traders quiet, it's not a time to be buying more gold, silver, or miners.
- It is a time to cheer that the price keeps rising. All gold bugs should own substantial core positions… so they enjoy the rise!
- For fresh buys, my suggestion is to take a hard look at the RSI and Stochastics oscillators on my weekly chart. In a weak market like 2013-2019, RSI tends to bottom near the oversold marker of 30. Sentiment is weak at that point, and the Stochastics oscillator is also usually quite oversold (near 20).
- In a strong market, like the current one, Stochastics still usually bottoms in the oversold zone, but RSI tends to bottom at about 50… and it happens with sentiment down and India and commercial traders on the buy.
- Double-click to enlarge. A strong uptrend is developing for GDX and associated miners.
- Consolidation is in play for the short-term and while FOMC, ECB, and jobs report surprises could push GDX to $30, a range trade between $33-$36 is likely.
- Either way, the uptrend is intact and a rally to $40 seems imminent after the consolidation is complete!
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.