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A medium term trend change in Gold? S&P approaches key level

Commentaries & Views

I thought the bounce might make it to $1990 last week, but bulls fell $5 short, with a top seemingly having occurred at the $1985 spot. Price has now broken below the trend line I have been showing; again, caution is warranted on the long side.

Weekly gold:

Note support in the $1860/45 region, which coincides with a mean reversion to the bottom of the weekly Bollinger band range. In my opinion, weekly momentum should stretch all the way down and turn back up as one indicator that a price bottom is forming/in.

In the meantime, S&P futures have just a hair to go before touching the top of the resistance level I’ve pointed to for quite some time. Traders can decide whether they are content with a profit or want to wait to see if an upside breakout of the triangle occurs. If a breakout occurs - I think the next long target is 4500, as shown in the daily chart below in blue.

If you bought indices in fall/winter 2022 when I originally took on a contrarian stance – you can probably afford to continue to hold for more evidence that at least a medium-term top in stocks is imminent.

Thanks, and good luck

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