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CPM Trade Signal - July 18, 2023

Commentaries & Views

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Time Stamp

Prices as of 12:08 p.m. EST 18 July 2023 $1,982.80 (Basis the August 2023 Comex contract).

Recommendation: Stand Aside

Initial Target Price / Range: $1,900 - $2,000

Initial Timeframe: 18 July 2023 to 1 August 2023

Gold prices rallied last week as lower than expected inflation figures for the U.S. suggested that monetary officials might not raise interest rates beyond their next Fed meeting. Today gold prices reached an intraday high of $1,986.60 before easing. The quick shift in sentiment about interest rates, inflation, the economy, and gold may last through the end of this month. This coupled with the roll of the August Comex contract into the December Comex contract could keep prices elevated into next week. There were still 24.0 million ounces to be rolled into future contracts as of 17 July. Next week the Fed will provide clearer guidance on interest rates. Until then price volatility might pick up to the high end of the above price range.

Once the roll and Fed meeting are passed, there could be scope for increased price weakness. It would not be surprising to see gold prices fall back toward $1,900 soon after, barring any major headline news. An appreciating U.S. dollar could weigh heavily on gold prices if it begins to materialize.

CPM has one-month, three-month ranges and eight-quarter quarterly price projections with greater discussion of the factors behind CPM’s analyses provided in CPM’s monthly subscription service, the Precious Metals Advisory.

While short-term trade recommendations provide high risk – high reward opportunities for investors, it is difficult to capture the complex web of factors affecting precious metals prices and the nuanced CPM analyses of these factors that goes into our firm’s price projections. In addition to these short-term outlooks, CPM Group provides clients enhanced trade recommendations that include one and three month price projections, as part of our Retail Investor Program. Contact CPM at for details.


Initial Target Prices and Timeframes are just that: Initial. If CPM does not issue a new Recommendation during or after that time it indicates that CPM maintains the posture in the most recent Trade Recommendation.
Position may be closed out once target price is reached, within the noted discretion or until CPM provides new trade recommendation. CPM may have reported to have closed out of prior trade recommendation at its discretion before publicly publishing new trade recommendation due to processing time.

Discretion should be allowed at +/- 0.20% of the price at the time each TR is issued from the target.

CPM’s preferred investment strategies use physical, futures, forwards, and options.

CPM Group wants to thank the following companies for helping us make these short Trade Signals available free of charge, and for their commitment to providing good information in opaque and asymmetrical commodities markets.

Metallic Minerals
Stillwater Critical Minerals
Granite Creek Copper

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.