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Bitcoin hit with a bearish bat: Stocks headed lower on DXY strength?

Commentaries & Views

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I was wrong about Bitcoin getting over 32k here. It could be because some have decided it really is a “fugazi,” or maybe technical selling from traders on the breach of the upward trendline under low liquidity exacerbated the move. A trader would simply say that there were more sellers than buyers and immediately think about what’s next

Owners of Bitcoin must now decide whether to continue to hold or look for an exit (if not already out on the retrace up after yesterday evening’s smackdown). The below daily chart shows the clear breach. Although there is still minor support at 25K, there is a more solid level lower, depicted by the yellow box.

S&P futures are in a position to finally close the open gap I have been pointing to since suggesting the top was in at 4500. Regular readers have seen the below chart posted on multiple occasions, probably dating back to when I took the long contrarian view on stocks in winter 22/23

Although certainly a falling fiat currency (as many readers are keenly aware of), there is no doubt that the USD’s recent strength has been applying pressure to most asset classes. That said, the DXY still has not broken the top descending trendline, which has to keep traders wondering if what we are about to experience is a big bear trap. I would not be surprised to see the DXY break upward, driving stocks down to close the gap and perhaps retest the flat support line while gold comes down to $1850. I think that scenario would bring big fear into the market just in time for the DXY to put in a top at 105.5 (ish).

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