Make Kitco Your Homepage

Gold/Silver: Jackson Hole is a game changer

Commentaries & Views

I know it's mid-August, but it indeed feels like Ground Hog Day with Precious Metals trapped on a merry-go-round of negativity where stronger economic data in the U.S. reaffirms the Fed's "higher for longer" theme that strengthens the U.S. Dollar and pushes yields higher.

Then in the overnight sessions, we get a series of weak Asian data where calls for China to "do something" get louder and louder. China then responds with minor accommodative measures to prop up the Copper market, Silver attempts to follow, and then the day session begins with a stronger U.S. data release.

You get the picture, the Dollar rallies, Yields move higher, Gold retreats. The cycle may break this week with Thursday's Jackson Hole symposium, where comments from Jerome Powell may give some indication that the interest rate hike cycle is over. 

Daily Silver Chart

Silver futures are back near the trough of the mid-summer lows and remain comfortably within a $4 price band with $22 as support and $26 as resistance. I firmly below it will take a close over $23.06 to carve out a bottom where the next overhead resistance remains at the 200-day moving average, near $23.25.

Ultimately it will take a close over $23.93 to shift the bears to the sidelines and the downward trend to neutralize. Additional demand from solar and electric vehicles should limit a further selloff below $22. Any uptick in demand from these two sectors out of China will trigger a new recovery in Silver. 

We updated our "5-Step Technical Analysis Guide" and integrated our "Top 5 trade ideas for Q3." Please download and review our Copper, Gold, and Silver strategies.

The guide will provide you with all the Technical analysis steps to create an actionable plan used as a foundation for entering and exiting the market. You can request yours here:  New 5-Step Technical Analysis Guide.

Daily Gold Chart

Gold futures are trading near five-month lows, and as a "zero-yielding asset," it's tough to make its bull case, especially with debt instruments yielding 5% everywhere. Seasonally, Gold tends to bottom in the middle of August and has historically recovered until the end of the month. The weakness in U.S. Equities may drive investors into the safety of debt instruments, ultimately taking yields lower and boosting Gold. The chart pattern suggests that futures must close back above $1951 to carve out a bottom. It will take a move back above $1983 to switch the bearish trend back to neutral. 

Having the flexibility to enter and exit the market quickly makes it essential for Precious Metals investors to have a futures trading account alongside their core Physical Precious Metals holdings. If you are interested in speculating on the rise and fall of the price of Precious Metals on a shorter-term basis, such as two weeks or two months, or If you have never traded futures or commodities, check out this new educational guide that answers all your questions on transferring your current investing skills into trading "real assets," such as the 1000 oz Silver futures contract. You can request yours here: Trade Metals, Transition your Experience Book


Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.