Contributed Commentaries
CPM Trade Signal - August 28, 2023
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Time Stamp
Prices as of 12:00 p.m. EST 28 August 2023 $1,953 (Basis the December 2023 Comex contract).
Recommendation: Stand Aside
Initial Target Price / Range: $1,915-$1,960
Initial Timeframe: 28 August 2023 to 8 September 2023
Gold prices came within $3.16, or 0.19%, of CPM Group’s last sell target of $1,910. Prices have rebounded since and have been consolidating around $1,940.
An argument can be made for prices to rise as well as fall and for this reason it is recommended at this time to stand aside. CPM sees a downward bias over the next couple of weeks, but there are several factors that demonstrate strength in investor demand that may limit any sell-off. Delivery issues in the September Comex silver contract may lead to higher silver prices in the next few days, which could spill over into higher gold prices.
The recent increase in gold prices came in the face of a stronger U.S. dollar as well as stronger bond yields, typically factors that weigh on gold prices. This highlights the underlying strength in gold investor interest and prices. There is a slew of economic data due for release this week, which includes but is not limited to U.S. jobs, inflation, and gross domestic product data. Persistent strength or stronger than expected data could cause gold prices to move to the downside. Seasonal headwinds could also play a role in weighing on prices in the near term.
CPM has one-month, three-month ranges and eight-quarter quarterly price projections with greater discussion of the factors behind CPM’s analyses provided in CPM’s monthly subscription service, the Precious Metals Advisory.
While short-term trade recommendations provide high risk – high reward opportunities for investors, it is difficult to capture the complex web of factors affecting precious metals prices and the nuanced CPM analyses of these factors that goes into our firm’s price projections. In addition to these short-term outlooks, CPM Group provides clients enhanced trade recommendations that include one and three month price projections, as part of our Retail Investor Program. Contact CPM at info@cpmgroup.com for details.
Notes:
Initial Target Prices and Timeframes are just that: Initial. If CPM does not issue a new Recommendation during or after that time it indicates that CPM maintains the posture in the most recent Trade Recommendation. Position may be closed out once target price is reached, within the noted discretion or until CPM provides new trade recommendation. CPM may have reported to have closed out of prior trade recommendation at its discretion before publicly publishing new trade recommendation due to processing time.
Discretion should be allowed at +/- 0.20% of the price at the time each TR is issued from the target.
CPM’s preferred investment strategies use physical, futures, forwards, and options.
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