Contributed Commentaries
Gold/Silver: new month, new markets
Kitco Commentaries | Opinions, Ideas and Markets Talk
Featuring views and opinions written by market professionals, not staff journalists.
August is officially in the books, and other than Platinum rising $100 from $885 to $985, there was little to get excited about. Precious Metals were flat, where hot economic data and a hawkish Federal Reserve supported the U.S. Dollar and Treasury Yields, further pressuring prices. As the month went on, softer prints from Consumer Confidence, ADP, GDP, and Jolts data cast doubts on the Fed's ability to maintain its hawkish stance. The September FOMC meeting now sits at a 93% chance that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged. China made another attempt to support its economy overnight by cutting the reserve requirements on foreign currencies. The immediate reaction was a breakout in Copper prices and a retest of the 200-day moving average. Still, as the day session progressed, better-than-expected employment data left traders uneasy ahead of the long weekend, booking gains in Copper and reducing exposure in Precious Metals.
Daily Silver Chart
Silver futures started the week on a firmer note but fell back as the week progressed and look susceptible to a more extensive correction next week. In the last article, I indicated that breakout traders will use a close above $24.75 to establish new long positions. However, the lack of upside momentum makes me question the strength of this "bull market." Those long Silver will want to use $23.79 as their stop-out point or short-dated put options such as the "week two, $24.50 puts" for protection. Remember, prices remain trapped between $$23-22 on the downside and $26-25 on the upside and lack a real catalyst to trade any higher. For those of you who are "perma bulls" on Silver, it would be wise to wait for a correction before adding to positions.
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Daily Gold Chart
Gold futures have risen since mid-August, with $1900 on the downside and $1980 on the upside. The technical perspective shows momentum studies struggling to maintain overbought levels. As long as 10-year Treasury Yields remain above 4% and the U.S. Dollar above 102.90, it is hard to bet on a near-term move back above $2000. It would take a close over $1986 to switch trend traders to the long side, while a close below $1938 will open the door for another retest of $1900.
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