Contributed Commentaries
CPM Trade Signal - September 21, 2023
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Time Stamp
Prices as of 10:56 a.m. EST 21 September 2023 $1,940.20 (Basis the December 2023 Comex contract).
Recommendation: Take Profit and Stand Aside
Initial Target Price / Range: $1,915 - $1,965
Initial Timeframe: 21 September 2023 to 5 October 2023
Gold prices broke below CPM Group’s previous sell recommendation target. While there is further potential for downside, with strong support for prices at $1,915, CPM Group recommends taking profits and standing aside at this time.
The fall in prices is broad based across assets, following the Fed’s most recent projections which suggests that it plans to keep rates higher for longer, something it has been saying for some time now but market participants have been loath to accept as reality.
Prices have been moving in a narrowing range since the second half of June. A breakout of this range could result in a strong move. In which direction prices break is uncertain, however. While tighter monetary conditions could pressure prices lower, the potential for a government shutdown or softness in economic data could push prices higher.
CPM has one-month, three-month ranges and eight-quarter quarterly price projections with greater discussion of the factors behind CPM’s analyses provided in CPM’s monthly subscription service, the Precious Metals Advisory.
While short-term trade recommendations provide high risk – high reward opportunities for investors, it is difficult to capture the complex web of factors affecting precious metals prices and the nuanced CPM analyses of these factors that goes into our firm’s price projections. In addition to these short-term outlooks, CPM Group provides clients enhanced trade recommendations that include one and three month price projections, as part of our Retail Investor Program. Contact CPM at info@cpmgroup.com for details.
Notes:
Initial Target Prices and Timeframes are just that: Initial. If CPM does not issue a new Recommendation during or after that time it indicates that CPM maintains the posture in the most recent Trade Recommendation. Position may be closed out once target price is reached, within the noted discretion or until CPM provides new trade recommendation. CPM may have reported to have closed out of prior trade recommendation at its discretion before publicly publishing new trade recommendation due to processing time.
Discretion should be allowed at +/- 0.20% of the price at the time each TR is issued from the target.
CPM’s preferred investment strategies use physical, futures, forwards, and options.
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