Contributed Commentaries
CPM Trade Signal - October 2, 2023
Kitco Commentaries | Opinions, Ideas and Markets Talk
Featuring views and opinions written by market professionals, not staff journalists.
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Time Stamp
Prices as of 12:27 p.m. EST 2 October 2023 $1,847.50 (Basis the December 2023 Comex contract).
Recommendation: Sell
Initial Target Price / Range: $1,820 - $1,875
Initial Timeframe: 2 October 2023 to 16 October 2023
Gold prices have come off sharply since early last week, around $100. Prices fell from an intraday high of $1,946.80 on 25 September to test an intraday low of $1,842.70 before recovering some.
It may be that market participants are realizing that economic conditions have not deteriorated to an extreme and have become less concerned. Inflation has been trending lower while real interest rates have been in positive territory by some measures for some time now. The U.S. dollar also has appreciated in recent weeks, weighing on gold. The U.S. federal government shutdown has been averted again, until another potential show down potentially by 17 November.
Gold prices have fallen sharply already, and there may be some very short-term recovery, but gold prices are expected to continue to head lower, potentially testing $1,820. Support levels have been broken and the trend is now for lower prices for now. It may not be until later this year that gold begins to climb higher. There continues to be financial, economic, and political concerns that remain supportive of gold.
CPM has one-month, three-month ranges and eight-quarter quarterly price projections with greater discussion of the factors behind CPM’s analyses provided in CPM’s monthly subscription service, the Precious Metals Advisory.
While short-term trade recommendations provide high risk – high reward opportunities for investors, it is difficult to capture the complex web of factors affecting precious metals prices and the nuanced CPM analyses of these factors that goes into our firm’s price projections. In addition to these short-term outlooks, CPM Group provides clients enhanced trade recommendations that include one and three month price projections, as part of our Retail Investor Program. Contact CPM at info@cpmgroup.com for details.
Notes:
Initial Target Prices and Timeframes are just that: Initial. If CPM does not issue a new Recommendation during or after that time it indicates that CPM maintains the posture in the most recent Trade Recommendation. Position may be closed out once target price is reached, within the noted discretion or until CPM provides new trade recommendation. CPM may have reported to have closed out of prior trade recommendation at its discretion before publicly publishing new trade recommendation due to processing time.
Discretion should be allowed at +/- 0.20% of the price at the time each TR is issued from the target.
CPM’s preferred investment strategies use physical, futures, forwards, and options.
CPM Group wants to thank the following companies for helping us make these short Trade Signals available free of charge, and for their commitment to providing good information in opaque and asymmetrical commodities markets.
Kitco
Metallic Minerals
Stillwater Critical Minerals
Granite Creek Copper
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