Contributed Commentaries
CPM Trade Signal - October 17, 2023
Kitco Commentaries | Opinions, Ideas and Markets Talk
Featuring views and opinions written by market professionals, not staff journalists.
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Time Stamp
Prices as of 11:41 a.m. EST 17 October 2023 $1,937.90 (Basis the December 2023 Comex contract).
Recommendation: Sell
Initial Target Price / Range: $1,900
Initial Timeframe: 17 October 2023 to 31 October 2023
Gold prices have risen from an intraday low of $1,823.50 on 6 October, touching an intraday high of $1,946.20 on 13 October before easing. The conflict in Israel and Gaza has led market participants to increase their gold long positions, both physical and on the Comex, pushing prices higher.
This said, the broader market indicators, such as currencies, stock markets, bonds, and others, do not appear to have moved as sharply as gold has. This could suggest the near-term risk protection buying of gold could be short-lived, especially if the conflict in the Middle East subsides or at least does not worsen with the inclusion of other countries or forces joining. The situation already is an economic lose-lose one, and any increased tension is not to the benefit of various nations with ties to the region. U.S. economic conditions continue to point toward expansion, even if it is a slower pace than in previous years. Conflict fatigue may set in similar to what has occurred with Russia-Ukraine, and prices could fall back toward $1,900.
CPM has one-month, three-month ranges and eight-quarter quarterly price projections with greater discussion of the factors behind CPM’s analyses provided in CPM’s monthly subscription service, the Precious Metals Advisory.
While short-term trade recommendations provide high risk – high reward opportunities for investors, it is difficult to capture the complex web of factors affecting precious metals prices and the nuanced CPM analyses of these factors that goes into our firm’s price projections. In addition to these short-term outlooks, CPM Group provides clients enhanced trade recommendations that include one and three month price projections, as part of our Retail Investor Program. Contact CPM at info@cpmgroup.com for details.
Notes:
Initial Target Prices and Timeframes are just that: Initial. If CPM does not issue a new Recommendation during or after that time it indicates that CPM maintains the posture in the most recent Trade Recommendation. Position may be closed out once target price is reached, within the noted discretion or until CPM provides new trade recommendation. CPM may have reported to have closed out of prior trade recommendation at its discretion before publicly publishing new trade recommendation due to processing time.
Discretion should be allowed at +/- 0.20% of the price at the time each TR is issued from the target.
CPM’s preferred investment strategies use physical, futures, forwards, and options.
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