Contributed Commentaries
CPM Trade Signal - November 14, 2023
Kitco Commentaries | Opinions, Ideas and Markets Talk
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Time Stamp
Prices as of 2:31 p.m. EST 14 November 2023 $1,966.70 (Basis the December 2023 Comex contract).
Recommendation: Sell
Initial Target Price / Range: $1,955
Initial Timeframe: 14 November 2023 to 28 November 2023
Gold prices bottomed out at $1,935.60 yesterday before recovering sharply today. Prices were buoyed by a weakening U.S. dollar following a decline in U.S. inflation data from 3.7% in September to 3.2% in October. This suggests that the Federal Reserve may not continue to increase interest rates and or may hold interest rates at current levels for less time than had been previously expected. Investors placed bets across nearly all asset classes, supporting a broader rally. The Israel-Hamas war premium appears to have eased meanwhile, removing some support for gold.
It would not be surprising to see gold prices retreat sharply in the very near term, possibly retesting $1,955. Reduced concerns about inflation and an expectation of lower interest rates are likely to eventually weigh on gold once more. There is some concern about a looming government funding deadline this Friday, but this deadlock usually has been resolved and or extended at the last moment over the past years, and even when there is a temporary government shut down it has tended to have a minimal to positive effect on the overall economy. (The U.S. government spends more per day during a funding shut-down than during normal operating days.) The current government funding deadline will most likely be extended once more, possibly removing some modest support for gold as well.
CPM has one-month, three-month ranges and eight-quarter quarterly price projections with greater discussion of the factors behind CPM's analyses provided in CPM's monthly subscription service, the Precious Metals Advisory.
While short-term trade recommendations provide high risk – high reward opportunities for investors, it is difficult to capture the complex web of factors affecting precious metals prices and the nuanced CPM analyses of these factors that goes into our firm's price projections. In addition to these short-term outlooks, CPM Group provides clients enhanced trade recommendations that include one and three month price projections, as part of our Retail Investor Program. Contact CPM at info@cpmgroup.com for details.
Notes:
Initial Target Prices and Timeframes are just that: Initial. If CPM does not issue a new Recommendation during or after that time it indicates that CPM maintains the posture in the most recent Trade Recommendation. Position may be closed out once target price is reached, within the noted discretion or until CPM provides new trade recommendation. CPM may have reported to have closed out of prior trade recommendation at its discretion before publicly publishing new trade recommendation due to processing time.
Discretion should be allowed at +/- 0.20% of the price at the time each TR is issued from the target.
CPM's preferred investment strategies use physical, futures, forwards, and options.
CPM Group wants to thank the following companies for helping us make these short Trade Signals available free of charge, and for their commitment to providing good information in opaque and asymmetrical commodities markets.
Kitco
Metallic Minerals
Stillwater Critical Minerals
Granite Creek Copper
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