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US Dollar due to extend the decline? Gold looking like the S&P

Commentaries & Views

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Gold bulls got the extension move to $1985 (and beyond), as I suggested was the probability with a close over $1950. As for a quick reversal to all-time highs, I can’t argue with the price action. The daily gold chart has momentum just starting to turn up, and like with stocks (on the weekly timeframe), I think the top Bollinger band looks like it wants to pull the price up; that would be $2010 spot.

The price action in stocks remains bullish, in my opinion, which is apparently contrary to that of Bank of America, who, per, is advising clients to “fade” the S&P rally over 4550. Personally, I will let price action at 4550 guide me as to the next move. As a base case, though, I don’t see a reason to sell, much less short, the below chart going into Santa season, thus far.

Will the US dollar index produce the same decline it did in the winter of 2022/23? The below weekly chart shows the period from mid-November 2022 to the end of January 2023, highlighted in blue, and a big recent bearish breach of prior support in the 105.5 area, highlighted in yellow. Momentum looks set to proceed downward as well, in my opinion.



Thanks and good luck.

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