I know that during a correction of the magnitude we are seeing right now it seems more like the gold bull is dead than on the verge of moving into what I expect will be one of the greatest parabolic moves in history.
However, all of the conditions necessary to launch the bubble phase are now in place. Gold is in the process of putting in an intermediate degree bottom. That bottom, which is only days away if it didn't already happen today, is going to be the single greatest buying opportunity, probably of the decade.
Gold sentiment is at multiyear lows. Retail traders that bought at $1900 have gotten wiped out. The media is full of stories calling for the death of the gold bull. Institutional traders from John Paulson, George Soros, and Dennis Gartman have all gotten knocked off the bull.
Breadth in the universally hated mining sector is back down to levels that have only been exceeded during the crash in 2008.
This sector has consolidated for so long that no one believes in mining stocks anymore. This is exactly the same sentiment that was prevalent in the silver market in the fall of 2010.
All the conditions are in place to launch the next stage of the secular bull market.
Up until now my expectation has been that we would see gold consolidate for probably the better part of a year before the next C-wave breaks out to new highs.
However, the scenario that is unfolding in the CRB and dollar indexes has me wondering if the gold bull isn’t going to start evolving much faster than I originally expected. Let’s just say that if I am correct and the dollar is on the verge of topping then we are probably going to see a much shorter consolidation than originally expected. Gold could launch much more quickly out of the B-Wave bottom than I expected and move to new all-time highs as early as the next intermediate cycle.
As a matter of fact I’m pretty confident that if the dollar turns down it is going to trigger the beginning of the third and final, bubble phase, in the gold bull market.
The public is already starting to become aware of the gold bull. All we need at this point to start the flood is for gold to recover quickly from this selloff. If gold quickly shoots back up and tags, or penetrates that big psychological $2000 number I expect it will be the siren call that draws the public into the bull market. And it is the public coming into a market that triggers the bubble phase.
During this phase of the bull I expect we will see the normal ABCD wave pattern break down as gold starts to accelerate into what will almost certainly be the most incredible parabolic advance, maybe in history. By the fall of 2014I expect we will see gold somewhere between $7,000 and $20,000 an ounce.
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GoldScents is a financial blog focused on the analysis of the stock market and the secular gold bull market. Subscriptions to the premium service includes a daily and weekend market update emailed to subscribers. If you would like to be added to the email list that receives notice of new posts to GoldScents, or have questions, email Toby.