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Hanging Chads on a Fiscal Cliff

Monday October 29, 2012 16:28

We all remember the Bush-Gore Election finale when the hanging chads debacle decided the presidential election in Florida and the courts. If you thought that was fun, watch what we get next. On this date, prior to America picking her next president, in polls too close to call, we can see several scary and ominous events that might happen between now and the end of January, 2013. Normally, the election season would be predictable with an October Surprise; some concocted media event manufactured to hype the strength or weakness of one political party or the other.  In our current situation, this time it is indeed different.

Instead of silly shredded cardboard political fights, this time we could be hanging by our very fiscal necks and strung out over a very dangerous cliff…in just 90 days or less!

“The Chad was made famous in the highly contentious 2000 United States presidential election> where many of Florida votes used Votomatic style punched card ballots. Incompletely-punched holes resulted in a partially punched chad, where one or more corners were still attached, a hanging chad, dimpled chad or pregnant chad - where all corners were still attached, but an indentation appears to have been made. These votes were not counted by the tabulating machines.” – Wikipedia

Seven things make it very different this time: (1) the USA is in a major unacknowledged depression; (2) the entire Middle East is unraveling in violence, chaos and revolution; simultaneously, (3) global bond markets are on the verge of collapse in a destruction of worldwide credit, (4) the American president and his administration have taken unusual (some would say unlawful) control of the USA courts and legislative system, lending and borrowing beyond the scope of reason, (5) an American electorate is on the verge of economic disaster with joblessness at 25% and growing worse, (6) states within the union are voting themselves sovereign status enabling them to move on politically in the face of an American dissolution and (7) the central bankers, market manipulators, market controllers and crooked politicians jockey for control while destroying their opponents.

This is not your average garden-variety election, nor is it your  run-of-the-mill recession the media talking heads would have you believe.

Right now, calmer, cooler heads are severely warning: this election is so important that the very existence and continuation of the American Republic and U.S. Constitution/Bill of Rights is at stake!

While we are often accused of being too pessimistic, we’d rather prefer to be called realists.  A realist sees the facts, reads the actions of others concerned and comes to a logical conclusion.

“Realism is a philosophy of mind rooted in the "common sense" philosophy of perceptionHyper-realism or Hyperreality, on the other hand, doubts the inability of consciousness to distinguish reality from fantasy.” -Wikipedia

We have written before about narcissism and psychopathic tendencies of power-hungry politicians and bankers. This is where we see all the hyperrealism or hyperreality as defined above.

We are certainly not professional doctors of the mind, but if you watch these people long enough, you too will get the drift of their behavior and how it alters the social fabric of nations who are intertwined with market results, economics and politics.

Those who engage in this activity always have an agenda and their agenda is not yours or ours. We watched the USA presidential debates and find it sadly amusing how the politicians can make speeches and platitudes obviously loaded with lies. They obviously figure that the majority of the herd (the Sheeple) will believe them if this stuff is spouted long enough and loudly enough.

What is really comes down to is this: (1) the more than 50% of Americans receiving some kind of government check for something prefer to vote for the candidate that will continue to hand out the goodies. They could care less who pays for it or whether state and national budgets are balanced…ever, (2) many of these “voters” don’t even care who dies in a war as long “their” side is the winner and retains the ultimate power. Desire is for bread and entertainment today. Who cares about tomorrow?

Capital markets are being destroyed by Federal Reserve monetary policy as they continue to print, write, and digitize bonds, bills and notes with the speed of light. This “Manufactured Money” is a centuries-old-story being repeated once again.

As we’ve written before, the average length of life, the very time span or cycle of a nation has been proven in history to be approximately 250 years.  Since the USA was born in 1776 this says we have about 14 years of life remaining for America. The way things are going we don’t doubt it.

While current economic and social signals bear this out, we prefer to think our nation can continue onward, but perhaps in some kind of new format with some semblance of life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness intact.

In putting together this puzzle, the very ingredients of the major players, our nation’s social fabric, the government, the military and monstrous population of weapons in America, we suspect the inevitable “Giant Confrontation” would be one of a fractured nation composed of several nation-states within the former United States. Perhaps now we are being too optimistic but we believe in the American people and think the right side would regain control and right the ship once again.

Our greatest fear (and the fears of many Europeans who have been through all this stuff in current and former communist countries) is that we sink into Euro-Skeptic Morass; a kind of giant socialistic/communist social prison that resembles the former East Germany, that will last for years.

So what’s in front of us for the next 2-3 months?

We are expecting an “October Surprise” manufactured by the current administration to smear the opposition. This could take many forms, each designed to take down opponents or create a mess requiring a “Wag The Dog” event. Such an event would mirror the current news action from Iran. Claims are being made that a deal was put together in secret between Iran and the administration to make a hero of the president to enhance his reelection. The White House denied any such deal or cooperation with Iran on Sunday, 10-21-12 on Fox News.

Further ‘Wag The Dog Action’ would be to provoke a violent engagement wit Iran and call a national emergency followed by an executive order being issued  to delay the national elections. Hey, if you figure you are going to lose with the voters, how about this cute little event to stay in power indefinitely?

Events in Libya the past few weeks have the congress boiling and out for political blood. In an election season, these things may seem concocted but the facts speak for themselves. 

Would a presidential impeachment be next on the table? After all, consider how Nixon resigned because of lying about a simple break-in burglary. In the Libyan instance, people were killed through apparent negligence (or some would say by design). This is serious stuff.

Obama is under tremendous pressure right now. This will escalate through the election season. While he appears to be in excellent health for his age, stress, opposition party attacks, and outside global financial/war failures and other serious allegations will take their toll. We have said it before and so have other analyst friends of ours: he might crack under the pressures and suffer a nervous breakdown. Watch for him to age before your very eyes in the next 3- 6 months.  We would not wish this stuff on anyone.

What about the USA credit downgrades a rating agency threatened last week? A downgrade can increase the interest rates based upon risk. If we get nailed with higher interest being paid on pure risk dimensions this could smash the bond markets we’ve been harping about for years. A one-point increase in yield could dump over the money truck.

In the streets of the Middle East, people fight when they have nothing left. This problem is spreading all over Europe with the worst underway in Southern Europe. If you think this can’t land on France, the UK and other bigger fish, you are kidding yourself.  Mr. Hollande in France with his new communist taxes and seizures is quickly shoving his country along toward their Fiscal Cliff.

If Obama loses the election, the word on the streets is that folks go to major rioting.

Watch out for massive voter fraud. Additionally, now we get news of United Nations observers coming to watch the USA elections. They have no authority or business in state elections. If they show up to interfere, state governors should have them arrested and deported under the law. The United Nations is at the core of a global one world government and currency.

Another major worry, announced on Fox News this week, is the plan for a series of very  nasty executive orders or lame duck congressional bills passing after the election and before January 1, 2013. Some of those proposed, would be a new UN tax on all worldwide financial transactions, UN global gun control laws, and, new UN taxes on the internet!

Maybe the president is elected and cannot finish out his term due to scandal, impeachment, further economic wreckage, or the inability to produce a budget, which would finally shove America over the Fiscal Cliff.

Many are not taking this Fiscal Cliff thing seriously. We are because we have been studying the potential for wide spread damage. THE CLIFF could smash GDP from +1.5% (exaggerated) to a negative -2 or -3% (reality). This would ruin 2 million jobs, shove the nation into further depression, wreck the national tax structure (cause falling collections to pay bills) and further impose more downgrades on national debt rating.

Supposedly there are some key senators from both parties meeting in secret to find a Fiscal Cliff solution. This may be true. But why should we expect any reasonable outcome in the middle of the contentious elections, lack of a national budget for three years, and the proven inability for both parties to get along and compromise in any positive way to find solutions to numerous USA problems?

At best we think they would impose higher taxes on those incomes above $250,000 and say those beneath would see no increase. Believe that and you’ll believe anything.

Another option would be to extend the Bush tax cuts for one year with a new president giving the politician’s time to find a compromise. Good luck on that one.

It is our firm expectation that the next 2-3 years could be the worst socially, politically and economically in the entire history of America.

We are hoping for the best and planning for the worst. It is too late for any president or administration to resolve the crushing debts issues. We are past the point of no return. Watch Europe as those countries unravel one by one. Watch what happens to the innocent citizens caught in the snares of central bankers and thieving politicians. This is what is coming to Asia and the West. For 2013, we see food increasing +50% and utilities at least +15% or more.

Stuff that works:

Understand your market and educate yourself to do a few things right. You do not need 50 stocks and 40 others to make money. Some of the best of the best do only one thing.  Look where you would be right now if you had piled into physical gold and silver in the year 2000.

While all eyes are on Europe’s destruction, the USA’s test comes November 6th. Market adventures might even arrive sooner if the broader stock markets slide out of control during this week of October 22-26. Last Friday was down signal.

Meanwhile, we suggest you gravitate toward physical gold and silver and only the best-of-the-best of related stocks supporting that view. In our work, we are busy looking for options and selling ideas for the broader stock markets heading toward the dustbin of destruction.

Last week we recommended two new ones in Trader Tracks Newsletter. We see more coming in this new seasonal beginning.

The Greater Depression Repression II is swiftly taking hold now and layoffs will be legendary. Housing has an additional -20% drop from the current USA national average.  Joblessness goes to 30%-35% and food stamps reach over 50 million to 60 million. We will get a 2013-2014 World War in the Middle East and when Obama is reelected, inflation goes to hyperinflation. Not happy stuff but it’s not the end of the world either. 

Somebody please tell us when the global bond markets crash for good and we’ll tell you when this can all get better and we can start all over again, maybe with a partially backed fiat gold currency.

By Roger Wiegand
Editor Trader Tracks Newsletter
The Jay & Rog Blog at webeatthestreet.com

Roger Wiegand is the writer and editor of Trader Tracks Newsletter for gold, silver and energy traders.  Roger provides recommendations for short and longer term traditional stock shares, futures and commodities trading with specifics for individual trades. Stay tuned for more of Traderrog’s insights and predictions via his exciting new daily audio subscription.  Coming soon! Details at www.wavelengthpublishing.com

Roger also is a regular contributor to The Korelin Economics Report ( www.kereport.com) , the highest rated daily internet radio program listened to throughout the world dealing with politics and hard assets. He is also a regular guest on the Weekend Edition of The Korelin Economics Report which airs on radio stations across the U.S. on Saturdays and Sundays.

Contact Claudio Bassi at Trader Tracks in our New York City publishing offices for an introductory 30-day trial subscription for only US $49.00.  Call us at (718) 457-1426 Monday through Friday, 9am to 4:30pm (EST) for details.  You can also email our office manager Claudio Bassi at cbassi@miningstocks.com for more information.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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