Gold & Silver - What's Next?
Worst case correction in our view is gold to $1007. Support is now $1107-$1115 with next lower at $1092.50, $1085 and a $1065-most probable low.
Worst case silver to $16.00 support with other higher supports at $17.15, $17.00, $16.85, and $16.48 most probable new low before the next rally, We Forecast Gold & Silver Index To 156.32 On The 41 Day Moving Average.
Worst case XAU support expected is 140. Support-resistance 150 most probable.
U.S. Dollar Index worst December price 72.50-74.50. Highest in the first quarter of 2010 would be 78.50, then a gradual selling event back to 72.50. Last half of 2010, all bets are off when several markets crash in later May through July, 2010.
We did a forecast on gold several months ago at a New Jersey conference and said $1250-1260 on the December futures. I think we got $1226, which is pretty close. After our current correction is completed I expect $1325 to $1375. Trading ranges are going wider and faster. Gold can easily swing $50 in one session.
After our new corrective base for silver at $16.48, we forecast the March, 2010 silver futures to a new intermediate high of $21.50-$22.00.
The XAU shares index should easily be back to 200 resistance after correcting down to 140-150 support. For the fall of 2010, we are in a brand new XAU era.
The US Dollar Index normally has the worst month of the year in December. For now, the December futures are 76.95 and we roll to the next most active month next week. The whole range in our view from now through May, 2010 will be 72.50 to 78.50. Following May into next summer, the dollar sinks steadily and gradually toward the 72.50 price. It should be under 70.00 but other nation’s currencies are falling even faster and some of those trades are causing investors to move into dollars. On the other hand dollar inflation should drop the index price next year.
Be very careful as we move forward in time. Trading is going faster and more volatile with wider trading ranges in precious metals and other markets. Try to be in position ahead of time rather than locking yourself into trades at the very last minute. Futures traders should always use stops and shares traders as well.
Personally, I can see unbelievable opportunities to trade that we would never see again for many years. Turn these problems into opportunities. Those on the right side of the trade might get rich. Those on the other side are just victims. Stay Alert. – Traderrog.
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The Jay & Rog Blog at webeatthestreet.com
Roger Wiegand is Editor of Trader Tracks Newsletter for gold, silver and energy traders. Roger provides recommendations for short and longer term traditional stock shares, futures and commodities trading with specifics for individual trades. See webeatthestreet.com for more information.
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