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Silver Market Update

By Clive Maund      Printer Friendly Version Bookmark and Share
Jul 27 2009 11:38AM

Originally published July 26th, 2009.

Although silver moves very much in lockstep with gold, it is looking considerably stronger than gold at this point. The reason for this is its role as an industrial commodity - when the stockmarket is high and rising, as now, silver usually outperforms gold, but once the stockmarket turns, silver then underperforms.

On its 6-month chart we can see that silver currently looks more robust than gold and as of the end of last week, its steep uptrend from its early July lows remained unbroken, unlike gold, but clearly should gold now turn lower it will take silver down with it of course, and this would be a logical point for it to go into reverse, having risen into a zone of significant resistance. However, silver is not overbought as measured by short-term oscillators and still has substantial upside potential, and should gold make a run at its highs over the short-term, as looks possible, silver might make advance to the zone of heavy resistance at and above $16 again. The key point to keep in mind though is that as gold has little chance of breaking out to new highs on account of its unfavorable COT structure, silver is unlikely to make it above $16 in the near future.

A curious anomaly existing at this time is that while the gold COT is looking increasingly bearish, silver's is still looking modestly bullish. While this won't save silver if gold caves in, it does suggest that any reaction in the near future is unlikely to be serious as would otherwise be the case.

Clive Maund



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The above represents the opinion and analysis of Mr Maund, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr Maund's opinions are his own, and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities.

Mr Maund is an independent analyst who receives no compensation of any kind from any groups, individuals or corporations mentioned in his reports. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr Maund recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications.

Although a qualified and experienced stockmarket analyst, Clive Maund is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Therefore Mr Maund’s opinions on the market and stocks can only be construed as a solicitation to buy and sell securities when they are subject to the prior approval and endorsement of a Registered Securities Advisor operating in accordance with the appropriate regulations in your area of jurisdiction.