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Majority Of Participants See Higher Gold Prices Next Week

Friday December 07, 2012 12:12 PM

Participants in the weekly Kitco News Gold Survey are mostly on the bullish side, although not as bullish as they were last week.

In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 33 participants, 24 responded this week. Of those 24 participants, 15 see prices up, while five see prices down, and four are neutral or see prices moving sideways. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders, money managers and technical-chart analysts.

Participants who are bullish generally fall into two camps. Some of those who are bullish say the market’s break was overdone and is due for a rebound on oversold conditions. These participants add that as long as gold holds some key support levels in the $1,670-$1,660 an ounce area, the yellow metal will retain its bullish attributes.

Others who are bullish said once the market gets past the year-end holidays, gold will return to trading on its underlying bullish fundamentals of central bank monetary stimulus and that will allow gold to rise. Specifically, several pointed to next week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting as a catalyst to a rebound. The FOMC is expected to announce new monetary stimulus measures at their December meeting, which concludes Wednesday.

Those who see weaker prices said gold is in a short-term downtrend and that’s unlikely to change. “The trend of the Feb contract remains down with initial support near $1,669, a price that marks the 50% retracement of the previous uptrend from $1,538.10 to the high of $1,800,” said Darin Newsom, senior analyst at DTN.

Participants who see sideways trade or are neutral said the ongoing discussions over the fiscal cliff continue to hold the metal hostage in a range. Further, as the year draws closer to an end, markets in general can be volatile, which makes some participants interested in closing up shop for now.

Frank Lesh, broker and futures analyst at FuturePath Trading, said even though gold is likely to end the week on a weaker note, it’s held up decently despite recent selling, but added he doesn’t see the market accomplishing much. “Gold … managed to hold the November lows. We still have the fiscal situation to deal with, however, and no one knows how the markets will respond. I still view this market as range bound and expect prices to be steady next week,” he said.

Kitco Gold Survey

Allen Sykora contributed to this survey.

By Debbie Carlson of Kitco News; dcarlson@kitco.com

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