Gold Survey: Mixed Outlook For Gold Prices Next Week - Survey Participants

Friday May 3rd, 2013 12:08 PM

Participants in this week’s Kitco News Gold Survey are split on their opinion for the direction of the gold market for next week, with no one group forming a majority, although there are a few more bears than in the other two categories.

In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 35 participants, 27 responded this week. Of those 27 participants, 10 see prices up, while 12 see prices down and five see prices moving sideways or are neutral. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders, money managers and technical-chart analysts.

Those who see weaker prices next week cited a few reasons, some of them based on technical-chart factors, others on fundamentals.

“The inability of the market to advance beyond last week's high at $1,484, the 24% Fibonacci retracement, shifts the advantage toward the short-sellers. I expect gold breaks and closes below $1,450 in the week ahead and sets up for a resumption of the bearish trend that remains in place,” said Ken Morrison, founder and editor of Morrison on the Markets.

Others said the better-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls data was bearish for gold, so they see the market pulling back next week.

Those who see higher prices said they expect prices to creep up next week, but aren’t expecting any sizable gains. “The gold and silver markets have stabilized over the past two weeks and while the overall trend continues down for at least the last year and a half, I expect the short term will see a recovery to eliminate the sharp selloff,” said Bob Tebbutt, partner, Armour Asset Risk Management.

Participants who are neutral or see prices in a sideways trading range said they expect gold to consolidate around current levels while the market considers its next move.

Allen Sykora contributed to this survey.

By Debbie Carlson of Kitco News dcarlson@kitco.com

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