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Gold Survey: Higher Gold Prices Expected Next Week By Survey Participants

Friday April 05, 2013 12:08 PM

The lower-than-expected U.S. jobs data and a possible bounce from this week’s lows could mean higher prices for gold next week, according to a majority of participants in the weekly Kitco News Gold Survey.

In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 34 participants, 29 responded this week. Of those 29 participants, 19 see prices up, while six see prices down, and four see prices moving sideways or are neutral. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders, money managers and technical-chart analysts.

After sharp losses this week, Comex June gold futures rebounded from a 21-month low on Friday following a surprisingly weak U.S. non-farm payrolls report. Several participants who see higher prices said the weak jobs number is a sign that the U.S. economy is stumbling again. Further, others said the break in prices this week was too much, too fast, so gold will likely rebound from this week’s lows.

“I doubt we break $1,525 to the downside. Central banks around the globe are printing money and this morning’s jobs report was dismal. Unfortunately eternal (QEs) are not growing the economy. While the market may very well test $1,525 monthly support, there is no way we are heading into a bear market in gold. (Gold is) simply at the bottom of a multi-year trading range,” said Ralph Preston, senior market analyst at Heritage West Financial.

Those who see weaker prices said they were unimpressed with gold’s bounce on Friday, noting that the market has not responded in classic bullish ways to news that should be bullish, such as the near-bankruptcy of Cyprus and heightened saber-rattling by North Korea.

“To give you an idea of how poorly gold is acting, when was the last time if ever you heard a country capable of launching nuclear weapons declare a state of war, threaten to use their weapons and not see gold blink?” asked Ira Epstein, of the Ira Epstein division of the Linn Group,  who said he is bearish.

Those who are neutral on the market or expect to see prices holding in a sideways range said this week’s losses gave them pause. Technical analyst Jim Wyckoff said he’s neutral. “Serious near-term chart damage (was) inflicted this week, but the market is now oversold, technically, on a near-term basis.”

Kitco Gold Survey

Allen Sykora contributed to this survey.

By Debbie Carlson of Kitco News dcarlson@kitco.com

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