Survey Participants Split But With Slight Downside Bias On Gold Prices Next Week

Friday December 09, 2011 12:19 PM

Participants in Kitco News’ weekly gold survey are nearly evenly split on the direction of the market next week, although they have a slight downward bent.

In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 34 participants, 18 responded this week. Of those, seven participants see prices up, while nine see prices down and two see prices sideways or unchanged. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical-chart analysts.

With the market roughly in the middle of its trading range from the past few months, many traders and analysts were focused largely on the technical-chart picture. In particular, those looking for strength cited gold’s ability to hold support around $1,700.

However, those looking for weakness pointed to declining volumes lately and other technical indicators.

“Looking at the technical picture, gold prices have fallen below the 20-day moving average, which is favoring short-term bearish momentum traders,” said Mike Zarembski, senior commodities analyst with optionsXpress. “In addition, prices have now solidly moved below the uptrend line drawn from major lows made back on Sept. 26.  This sets up a potential test of the near-tem lows near the $1,670 level basis the Feb futures.”

Late in the Comex pit session, the 20-day average for the February contract was at $1,733.70 an ounce and the session high was $1,727.90.

Some of the bulls listed the likelihood of further loosening of monetary policy by the European Central Bank down the road and potential for the Federal Open Market Committee to hint at more possible easing in the U.S. when policy-makers meet next week.

Meanwhile, some participants were bearish due to the ongoing European debt saga, while others were bullish for the same reason. One analyst cited potential for gold to ease if it maintains its recent correlation with other markets, such as equities and the broader commodity market.  But another suggested the crisis could reach the point where there are renewed worries about credit downgrades, more “printing” of money by central bankers and thus a move into gold as a store of value.

Kitco Gold Survey

By Allen Sykora of Kitco News asykora@kitco.com

Cecilia Tulikowski-Denison and Alexander Letourneau contributed to the survey.

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