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Gold Survey: Survey Participants Remain Split On Price Direction For Gold Next Week

Friday February 8, 2013 12:18 PM

Survey participants continue to disagree on the outlook for gold prices for next week, with half seeing higher prices and the other half seeing weaker or a sideways movement in prices in this week’s Kitco News Gold Survey.

In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 33 participants, 24 responded this week. Of those 24 participants, 12 see prices up, while four see prices down, and eight see prices moving sideways. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders, money managers and technical-chart analysts.

Those who see higher prices said the underlying fundamentals are still supporting gold and that hasn’t changed.

“Competitive currency devaluation to enhance exports is encouraging a rise on 10-year bond yield percentages. That might slightly improve some currencies but will have little impact on the gold price unless surreptitious intervention by the (Federal Reserve) occurs. Western banks hope for lower gold prices so they can accumulate it at discount prices. Traders/speculators watch for it so they can catch stops and make a quick profit. The average gold investor should hold (a) position because that is what the emerging central banks are doing aside from swooping in on price drops to do their own accumulation,” said Bill Goldman of 3GF Corp.

Many participants who said neutral or sideways said they see no reason for gold to break out of its current trading range. Without a catalyst gold, will likely hold in this current range between $1,650 and $1,690 and may trade closer to $1,670.

Those who see weaker prices said with the metal unable to break above resistance in the $1,690 to $1,700 level, the path of least resistance is lower. Others said the lackluster trading activity in gold gives no incentive to buy it now.

“I am still bearish on gold for next week. (A) steady dollar and steady stock market will make for a hard crash in gold, but we may see some more money move away from gold as there (are) some better ways to make some money. We are starting to see an influx of money in the soft commodities and other areas of the commodity sector. We could see a pickup in physical demand come mid to late March but as long as inflation is in check, the dollar and indexes stays steady to stronger there will be no new buying of gold,” said Jimmy Tintle, owner GreenKey Alternative Asset Services.

Kitco Gold Survey

By Debbie Carlson of Kitco News dcarlson@kitco.com

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