Higher Gold Prices Expected Next Week Say Survey Participants

Friday February 17, 2012 12:08 PM

A sizable majority of participants in the Kitco News Gold Survey expect higher prices next week for the metal, in one of the more lopsided surveys recently.

In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 32 participants, 23 responded this week. Of those 23 participants, 16 see prices up, while three see prices down, and four are neutral. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders, money managers and technical-chart analysts.

Those who see higher prices gave several reasons: gold holding support at $1,700 an ounce, open interest building in the Comex gold futures and continued loose monetary policy. Several also expressed optimism that Monday’s meeting of the Eurogroup finance ministers will come to some agreement to help bail out Greece prior to when the country must make a big bond payment or risk a default.

Mike Zarembski, senior commodity analyst at optionsXpress, cited a technical-chart reason. “Gold prices continue to remain above the downtrend line drawn from the September 2011 highs. We may be seeing a ‘bull flag’ forming in the daily futures charts which, if verified, would further confirm the up-move seen in 2012,” he said.

Survey participants also point out that gold is behaving like a risk asset, so if other risky assets like equities rise, gold will follow.

That, however, leaves gold at the mercy of headline news. Those who see gold prices weaker said they did not expect positive news out of the Greek situation, which would be bearish for gold.

Those who are neutral on prices said gold has stayed within its recent range of about $1,705 to $1,750 and it may continue to do so without a new catalyst to push it out of the range.

Kitco Gold Survey

By Debbie Carlson of Kitco News dcarlson@kitco.com

Cecilia Tulikowski-Denison contributed to the survey.

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