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Survey Participants Have Mixed Outlook For Gold Prices Next Week

Friday July 20, 2012 12:15 PM

No consensus emerged within survey participants for gold prices for next week in Kitco News’ weekly Gold Survey, but a few more participants see higher prices.

In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 33 participants, 22 responded this week. Of those 22 participants, 10 see prices up, while six see prices down, and six are neutral. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders, money managers and technical-chart analysts.

Participants who see higher prices said the market is holding $1,550 and they anticipate some sort of quantitative easing will eventually appear to support gold prices. Also, strength in other commodity markets is stoking some inflation talk.

“I see the grains higher, crude oil over $90 (a barrel), so I see that inflation is not far behind. We had better housing numbers, decent auto sales. I don’t think inflation has left us despite lower interest rates,” said George Gero, vice president with RBC Capital Markets Global Futures and precious metals strategist.

Not everyone, though, is seeing inflation working its way across the board. Sterling Smith, commodity trading adviser and vice president, commodity research, Citibank Institutional Client Group, is bearish gold. He also said it was too soon for gold to rally on these types of inflation worries. “Not yet. (Grain inflation) needs to work its way through further,” he said.

Others who are bearish also said the market “feels heavy” at current levels and could test the downside.

Several market watchers said they don’t see much significant price action next week as gold is in the dog days of summer. There’s no fresh monetary stimulus to push it out of the range, so gold may just bide its time until there’s something strong enough to push it out of the rough range of $1,550 to $1,600 an ounce.

Kitco Gold Survey

By Debbie Carlson of Kitco News dcarlson@kitco.com

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