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Survey Participants Torn Over Gold Market Direction Next Week

Friday June 22, 2012 12:12 PM

The outlook for gold price direction next week is cloudy, as the weekly Kitco News Gold Survey shows no clear majority view for gold.

In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 33 participants, 28 responded this week. Of those 28 participants, 12 see prices up, while nine see prices down, and seven are neutral. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders, money managers and technical-chart analysts.

Survey participants who see higher prices said they thought the sell-off in prices this week was overdone and that the market will hold support levels. “Gold prices may see a slight rebound from the lows seen last week after showing a disappointing reaction to the Fed’s (Federal Reserve) announcement to extending Operation Twist. We should see a rebound as gold gets to a value area where traders will re-enter for safety and value,” said Phillip Streible, senior commodities broker, R.J. O’Brien.

Those who see weaker prices cited strength in the U.S. dollar which is pressuring commodities across the board. The technical price outlook short-term is also negative, which could weigh on gold. A test of the May lows in the $1,520 an ounce area might be in the cards, especially if the dollar index can continue to rise.

“Gold continues to be pushed around by the dollar… Gold volatility scares people and this is clearly reducing investment demand. No one is profitable being long gold this year. The technical picture remains bearish as gold has been unable to push through the down-trend lines on the daily and weekly charts. I see gold steady to lower next week,” said Frank Lesh, broker and futures analyst with FuturePath Trading.

A number of participants are neutral on gold next week, wanting to stand aside and see the dust settle a bit before coming back into the market. Specifically, a few pointed out next week is quarter-end and for some firms, the end of the fiscal year. Position-squaring could influence trade, leading to sideways action.

Kitco Gold Survey

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By Debbie Carlson of Kitco News; dcarlson@kitco.com

Allen Sykora contributed to this survey.

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