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Market Participants Divided On Gold's Price Direction For Next Week

Friday October 12, 2012 12:05 PM

Survey participants are fairly split on the outlook for gold’s price direction next week, with no side having a clear majority.

In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 33 participants, 21 responded this week. Of those 21 participants, 10 see prices up, while nine see prices down, and two are neutral or see prices moving sideways. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders, money managers and technical-chart analysts.

Those who see higher prices point to the recent monetary easing by central banks. “The market is looking ahead to European Central Bank action on bond buying; so far, the ECB has been all talk and no action, but with latest developments in Spain and Greece, it’s likely action will lie ahead,” said Adrian Day, chairman and chief executive officer, Adrian Day Asset Management.

Those who see weaker prices cite the market’s inability to take out the $1,800 an ounce level.

Frank Lesh, broker and futures analyst with FuturePath Trading, said he sees prices trading steady to lower next week as markets in general are consolidating and gold is starting to look technically bearish in the short-term.

“Although gold and equities - companion risk assets - are at the lower ends of their ranges (they) are starting to appear ‘heavy.’ With the uncertainty of U.S. elections and European problems we could see these markets consolidate more, but without any further upside the longs may start to liquidate to preserve the profits they have this year and we are seeing sell stops build underneath the market,” Lesh said.

Those who are neutral said gold prices will likely mimic the action seen this week and trade in a sideways fashion. Gold could hold between $1,760 and just under $1,800.

Kitco Gold Survey

By Debbie Carlson of Kitco News dcarlson@kitco.com

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