Lower Prices Seen For Gold Market Next Week - Participants

Friday September 16, 2011 12:31 PM

Weakness in technical charts in the short term and investors returning to other, riskier markets like equities could weigh on gold prices next week, according to participants in the Kitco News Gold Survey.

In the Kitco News Gold Survey, 28 out of 34 participants responded. Of those 28 participants, nine see prices up, while 15 see prices down and four see prices sideways or unchanged. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical chart analysts.

Those who see lower prices for next week cite both the resurgence in the U.S. dollar and technical chart patterns. “I'm afraid I'm getting indications that we could break the recent $1,702 low in gold, not necessarily next week, but short-term.  Volume is trading to the downside.  So, I'm short-term bearish, possibly beyond next week.  We would have to see volume come back in dramatically to the upside and probably take out recent highs ($1,922) to reverse this stance,” said Mark Leibovit, chief market strategist of VRGold Trader.com.

Some also said after Thursday’s decision by the European Central Bank and other coordinating central banks to flood the market with dollars so European banks can get liquidity eases for the short-term a potential credit crunch there. That cools off the immediate worry about European banks, but longer-term the problems with sovereign debt remain.

Those who see higher prices next week said the market continues to see strong physical buying at lower levels and also cited the structural financial problems in Europe as support. Also, some are thinking that if the Federal Reserve announces any stimulus program next week at its two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting, then gold prices can rebound.

The few participants who are neutral said they’re waiting for gold to consolidate at current levels, while another is reserving judgment on prices to see if open interest in gold futures prices increased on the Friday rally. Rising open interest combined with higher prices signals new bullish positions placed in the market.

Finally, at least one market participant mentioned that trading in the gold market early next week may be lighter than normal because of the London Bullion Market Association’s meeting in Montreal will take many traders away from their desks.

Kitco Gold Survey

By Debbie Carlson of Kitco News dcarlson@kitco.com

Cecilia Tulikowski-Denison contributed to the survey.

Editor’s Note:

Kitco News will provide readers with comprehensive print and video coverage of three-major precious metals market events in New York, Toronto and Montreal during the next two weeks.

First, Kitco News will supply live coverage on Wednesday, Sept. 14, of the CPM Platinum Group Metals Seminar in New York. That will be followed by the Toronto Resource Investment Conference September 15-16, and then the London Bullion Marketing Association meeting in Montreal September 18-20.  

The CPM Group's Platinum Metals Group Seminar Sept. 14 will showcase presentations from some of the leading analysts and investors in the PGM sector. Register to watch the CPM Platinum Group Metals Seminar Live (Free Registration): http://cpmevents.kitco.com/

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