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Survey Participants See Higher Gold Prices Next Week

Friday September 27, 2013 12:00 PM

(Kitco News) - Gold prices are forecast to rise next week, a majority of participants in the weekly Kitco News Gold Survey said.

In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 36 participants, 19 responded this week. Of those 19 participants, 11 see prices up, while four see prices down and four are neutral or see prices trading in a range. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders, money managers and technical-chart analysts.

Last week, survey participants were nominally bullish. As of noon EDT Friday, prices were up about $8 on the week. As of Sept. 13, survey participants have been correct three of the past five weeks.

Sean Lusk, director commercial hedging division at Walsh Trading, said there are a few reasons why he sees prices rising. The split views of the varied Federal Reserve governors on monetary policy suggest that uncertainty remains, which “conveys to me traders will most likely have a bullish bias,” he said.

Gold could also find safe-haven demand if next week’s nonfarm payrolls report comes out disappointing; additionally, gold could find more safe-haven demand amid the fiscal brinkmanship going on in the U.S. Congress, he added.

Mark Leibovit, editor, VR Gold Letter, said he’s giving bulls the benefit of the doubt, but is watching technical charts closely. “Under $1,285-$1,300 the chances of seeing a retest of $1,180 or even lower prices becomes a possibility. Bearish sentiment is still high and the 'fundamental' case presented by most analysts is bearish. This makes me more bullish, because I believe their view of the fundamental case is incorrect. Gold is a currency and with world currencies all being devalued and the fact they are essentially nothing more (than) paper is enough of a reason to be accumulating gold and to remain constructive,” he said.

Those who see weaker prices said gold’s outlook remains soft. “I think gold will be lower next week,” said Kevin Grady, owner of Phoenix Futures and Options LLC. “Although gold may hold a bid as concerns persist about a resolution to the debt ceiling, I think some mines will take advantage of any rally to start hedging. Every recent rally has been met with very aggressive selling. The taper has been postponed but it still looms heavy on gold. Once this program begins and we see interest rates rising, we should be testing our recent lows of $1,182. The mines are starting to realize this. I will be watching the forwards market for the first signs of any major hedging.” 

A few market participants said they expected gold prices to hold in the current range.

“Most markets this week are being held hostage by the budget/government funding battle and it is anyone’s guess as to the outcome,” said Frank Lesh, broker and futures analyst with FuturePath Trading. “Gold posted an inside week -- within last week’s range -- so no new price discovery to consider.... The fundamental factors remain the same, physical buying supports on the dips and ETF liquidation limits the highs. I still view gold as range bound and whichever way it runs, you just have to go for the ride. I remain neutral.”

Kitco Gold Survey

By Debbie Carlson of Kitco News; dcarlson@kitco.com

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