Editor's note: Catch Kitco News' latest OUTLOOK 2014 coverage

Doug Casey, Stephanie Link & M*A*S*H Star Place Their Bets For 2014

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By Kitco News
Friday December 13, 2013 12:41 PM

invest like the expert

Introducing Kitco News’ 2014 Invest like the Expert Series - Part II, a four-part weekly feature that will showcase investment gurus’ top picks for the coming year. Every Friday in December, a set of experts will be unveiled to share the investments of their choice and the ones they will avoid entirely in 2014. Each expert was asked how they would invest $10,000 in 2014. Prepare for surprising results from the most well-known names in the industry! 

This week’s roster includes Doug Casey, M*A*S*H star Wayne Rogers, Satyajit Das, TheStreet's Stephanie Link and Kitco’s very own Peter Hug.

Click Here to Invest Like the Experts in 2014 - Part II>>

Part I includes insights from Jim Rickards, Rich Dad’s Robert Kiyosaki, Dennis Gartman of the Gartman Letter, Polar Pacific’s David Bensimon and Kitco’s Jim Wyckoff.

Part III includes insights from CPM’s Jeff Christian, Tiberius’ Christoph Eibl, David Morgan of the Morgan Report, U.S. Global Investors’ Frank Holmes, best-selling author Danielle Park, Don Coxe of Coxe Advisors, and star of Kitco’s RESET Vince Lanci.

Part IV included insights from Keith Fitz-Gerald of Money Morning, David Gurwitz of Charles Nenner Research, Peter Grandich of the Grandich Letter, star of Kitco’s Chart This! Gary Wagner, the Aden Sisters, iiTrader’s Rich Ilczyszyn, and former U.S. Congressman Ron Paul.

Wishing you Happy Holidays and Happy Investing!

Send us your feedback at newsfeedback@kitco.com

TheStreet's Stephanie Link Looks To International Equities in 2014, Reduce Positions in Consumer Staples

Expert: Stephanie Link

Stephanie Link
 

Claim to Fame: Director of Research & Vice President of Strategy for TheStreet, Co-MGR of Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust, Seen Regularly on CNBC

What type of investor do you consider yourself?“I am a fundamentalist – I analyze companies and assets and I also look at the macro top-down strategy…

 I think that my investment style is really more core - which is a combination of value and growth.  I’m looking for stocks that are kind of growing but that are trading at a reasonable valuation. So I’m not a momentum investor. I’m not a deep-value investor. But I try and find something in the middle.”

Risk Averse or Risk Taking? “Interesting question and it’s a tough answer. I do take some risk, we do have some high beta, higher volatility names in the portfolio but I also like to offset it with some lower volatility stocks. So I would say I’m a long-term investor, I trade around core positions and I have kind of a blend of some really high-fliers and some names that are less aggressive with less beta.”

How would you invest $10,000 in 2014?

50% in US Equities
50% Internationally (Europe, China, Japan)

“I would slowly throughout 2014 take profits in the US and put it internationally, because I think the valuations are much cheaper internationally than they are here in the United States.”

Where would you avoid putting your money in 2014?
“[I]f you have an allocation and you are going to have some stocks and some bonds, I would absolutely reduce fixed income, because I do think interest rates are going to move higher next year, and I think you don’t want to own long-dated maturities when rates are going higher.”

“In addition to stocks, I would reduce bond-like investments. What does that mean? I would reduce positions in utilities, in consumer staples, and in telecom. Those are areas that are very interest rate sensitive. And as interest rates move higher they compete with the dividends in these sectors.”

What is the best investment advice you ever received?
“The best advice I ever got was from my father, who was a broker - he basically said dollar cost averaging. 

Every month put a little money away in whatever it is you are comfortable owning, I started off with the Vanguard S&P 500 – and little bit every month eventually leads to a little bit more.”

Who do you follow for investment advice?
“One of the best investors who is brilliant that I always followed is Leon Cooperman from Omega Advisors.”

Editor’s Note: This author's answers have been edited from the original. Catch Stephanie Link’s full story here!

By Daniela Cambone dcambone@kitco.com and Sarah Benali sbenali@kitco.com

Biggest Risk Is Political: Wayne Rogers

Expert: Wayne Rogers

Wayne Rogers

Claim to Fame: ‘Trapper John’ McIntyre on hit-series M*A*S*H, seen regularly on Fox News’ program Cashin’ In

What type of investor does Rogers consider himself?Wayne Rogers said he is not a trader but an investor that looks for longer term trends. “Longer trends in today’s market however aren’t very long because news travels fast and it’s a world market now,” he said.

“Fundamentals still matter more than market activity.”

How would you invest $10,000 in 2014?       

50% in Hard Assets
50% Oil and Gas Stocks, & Stocks of companies that hold Hard Assets

“For the next couple of years I would favor real estate principally because I’m afraid of what will happen when the Fed stops printing money,” Rogers said. “Then you’re going to have some big inflation so I think precious metals that are usable metals and rare earths [as well].”

Where would you avoid putting your money in 2014?
“I’m very concerned about the muni market in a risk point of view,” he said. “It’s a political risk not an economic risk.”

What is the best investment advice Rogers ever received?
“I think when my son said, ‘Dad, buy me a candy bar,’ it was immediate, it was a free market, I paid for the candy bar and he ate it,” Rogers said. "A simple transaction in a free market always yields the best.”

What does Rogers follow for investment advice?

“I look at timing more than anything else."

By Daniela Cambone dcambone@kitco.com and Sarah Benali sbenali@kitco.com

Ludicrous to Have Investment Style: Satyajit Das

Expert: Satyajit Das

Satyajit Das

Claim To Fame:  Bestselling Author of Traders, Guns & Money: Knowns and Unknowns in the Dazzling World of Derivatives

What type of investor does Das consider himself?
It is “ludicrous” to have something called an investment style, he said.  Das, who goes by his last name, takes a cue from the popular 80s film, When Harry Met Sally -- Das refers to the now infamous line, “I’ll have what she’s having.” In essence, Das said one’s investment style should be to follow the lead of successful investors.

“In reality, having any particular style is silly, particularly in this environment, which is kind of a manufactured environment,” he said. “[E]verything is manipulated by governments and central banks; there is no real supply and demand equation that drives anything anymore.”

How would Das invest $10,000 in 2014?

90% Income-Producing Assets (Government Bonds, Corporate bonds, Cash)
10% Out-of-the-money Calls & Puts

“Despite the fact that everybody thinks government bonds are a terrible investment […] I think you’re going to have to buy [them] because at the end of the day, the government can basically crank up the printing presses and give you the money.”

Das said he would invest in corporate bonds of some companies with good underlying assets and cash flows. “I’ve always liked 3 things; which is basically food, energy and guns.”

He would also buy calls and puts on currencies and equities. “I have absolutely no idea whether you’re going to get a ‘melt up’ or meltdown, so basically I want to try to take advantage of either.”

Where would you avoid putting your money in 2014?
“I can only give you the advice of the comedian Will Rogers. He once said in terms of investment advice, that you should buy some good stock, and then you should watch it go up and when it’s gone up you should sell it. If it hasn’t gone up, you shouldn’t buy it. “

What is the best investment advice you ever received?
“ [The] Best investment advice I ever received was somebody who told me a line from Woody Allen, which was, ‘a financial advisor is someone who will give you financial advice until you have no more money to invest.’”

Who do you follow for investment advice?
“It’s very simple. I look for whoever is successful.”

By Daniela Cambone dcambone@kitco.com and Sarah Benali sbenali@kitco.com

I Trade Against the Herd: Peter Hug

Expert: Peter Hug

Peter Hug

Claim to Fame: Kitco's Global Trading Director, 40 years of Experience as a Trader, Former SVP at Guardian Trust. Hug developed the first precious metals certificate program and the first margin trading accounts for metals on the cash market

What type of investor do you consider yourself? 
I don’t believe you can be a successful long term investor without taking into account a variety of factors. Fundamentals drive the initial trade in commodities, but technical levels for entry and exit points are a necessary tool and the contrarian in me tends to trade against the herd.”

Risk Averse or Risk Taking?
 “I would answer that question differently if I was 30 years old - at the age of 62, logic dictates that I reduce my risk tolerance because my time horizons to recover are virtually nil - if I make a bad call.

At 30, you have your prime earning years still ahead and more risk is warranted.”

How would Hug invest $10,000 in 2014?

30% Short-term Notes (less than 2 years)
30% Blue Chip/Dividend-Paying Stocks
20% Real Estate Rental Properties
20% Hard Assets

With regards to the short-term maturities, Hug says he would invest in notes that are no longer than 2 years. As for stocks, Hug would invest in companies with large cash reserves on their balance sheets. Finally, Hug would put money in hard assets where supply and demand fundamentals are bullish, for instance, platinum, oil under $85 and copper due to China’s growth prospect.

Where would you avoid putting your money in 2014?
"Long term bonds."

What is the best investment advice you ever received?
“Never average down.  If what you bought at $30 is a dog, it doesn’t become a gem at $20.”

Who do you follow for investment advice?
“No one in particular. Listen to the arguments and positions and then make up my own mind.  It’s always your call. You need to own your decision.”

By Daniela Cambone dcambone@kitco.com and Sarah Benali sbenali@kitco.com

Doug Casey To Avoid Bonds, Eyeing Junior Resource Stocks

Expert: Doug Casey

Claim to Fame: Founder of Casey Research, Bestselling Author of Crisis Investing - the bestselling financial book in history and Author of the new book Right on the Money.

What type of investor does Casey consider himself? 
Casey says that although there are many investment philosophies to follow, the best approach in today’s environment is to try to be a speculator. “I define a speculator as somebody who attempts to capitalize on politically caused distortions in the marketplace,” he said. “[The governments] are creating more distortions and misallocations of capital in the market, which arguably will be giving us much more speculative opportunities,” he added.

When asked about his appetite for risk, Casey said he has always been a risk-taker from a personal standpoint but in today’s world he is more cautious. “I’m quite risk-averse because most markets now are very overpriced.” 

How would Casey invest $10,000 in 2014

12-13% in Gold Coins
12-13% in Silver Coins
74-76% in Junior Resource Stocks

“First thing you should do is buy some gold coins – or one gold coin I should say –  and buy an equal amount of silver coins and that should constitute your financial foundation,” Casey said. “From that point […] you should look to speculate in an area where it is possible to get 10 or even 50 to one on the rest of your capital. And as we speak, right now, that means these junior resource stocks.” Casey said these stocks are close to the bottom and it would not be farfetched to think “these junior gold, silver, oil, uranium, and other stocks [will] go up %1000.”

Although Casey warned against equities, he highlighted the potential in Cyprus’ stock market.

“It is down 98% from its peak of 2007 and when any market is down by 98% you just have to reflectively look at it,” Casey said. “As we speak, in Cyprus, many stocks are selling at 10% of book value and 8 to 10 percent dividend yield […] I think that’s another speculative place for your money along with North American and Australian resource stocks.”

Where would Casey avoid putting his money in 2014?
“Bonds.”

“Bonds remain a triple threat to your capital. With interest rates at all time lows, that means bonds are at all time highs,” Casey said.

“Second thing is that bonds are denominated in paper currencies and those currencies are going to lose value much faster over the next couple of years due to the trillion of units being created by governments,” he added. “Third thing is default risk…so bonds are a horrible place for your money, I wouldn’t trust them with a 10-foot pole.”

What is the best investment advice you ever received?
Investigate  before you invest said Casey. “Too often, people throw money at some market or some individual-securit[ies] based on a hunch. Here I have to tip my hat to Warren Buffet - who really is a genius - because he investigates everything as thoroughly as possible before he invests in it.”  

Who do you follow for investment advice?
“You really got to be your own investment advisor but the only way you can do that effectively is by being very well-read in every possible area you can think of.”

Editor’s Note: This author's answers have been edited from the original. Catch Doug Casey’s full story here!

By Daniela Cambone dcambone@kitco.com and Sarah Benali sbenali@kitco.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.
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