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Ron Paul, Keith Fitz-Gerald, iiTrader, Aden Sisters, Grandich, Wagner: Invest Like The Experts Part IV

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By Kitco News
Friday December 27, 2013 11:30 AM

Introducing Kitco News’ 2014 Invest like the Expert Series - Part IV, a four-part weekly feature that will showcase investment gurus’ top picks for the coming year. Every Friday in December, a set of experts will be unveiled to share the investments of their choice and the ones they will avoid entirely in 2014.

Each expert was asked how they would invest $10,000 in 2014. Prepare for surprising results from the most well-known names in the industry!

This week's roster includes Keith Fitz-Gerald of Money Morning, David Gurwitz of Charles Nenner Research, Peter Grandich of the Grandich Letter, star of Kitco’s Chart This! Gary Wagner, the Aden Sisters, iiTrader’s Rich Ilczyszyn, and former US Congressman Ron Paul.

Click Here to Invest Like the Experts in 2014 - Part IV>>

Part I includes insights from Jim Rickards, Rich Dad’s Robert Kiyosaki, Dennis Gartman of the Gartman Letter, Polar Pacific’s David Bensimon and Kitco’s Jim Wyckoff.

Part II includes insights from Doug Casey, M*A*S*H star Wayne Rogers, Satyajit Das, TheStreet's Stephanie Link and Kitco’s very own Peter Hug.

Part III includes insights from CPM’s Jeff Christian, Tiberius’ Christoph Eibl, David Morgan, Frank Holmes, Danielle Park and star of Kitco’s RESET Vince Lanci.

Wishing you Happy Holidays and Happy Investing!

Send us your feedback at newsfeedback@kitco.com

Keith Fitz-Gerald To Avoid Twitter & Facebook

Expert: Keith Fitz-Gerald

Claim to Fame: Chief Investment Officer of Money Morning, Chief Investment Strategist of Money Map Press and seen regularly on Fox Business, CNBC & Bloomberg

What type of investor do you consider yourself?
“I am a self-described techno fundamentalist. I blend the use of scenarios based on planning and analysis with highly quantitative systems that help me identify trends but, more importantly, where to enter and exit them for maximum profit.”

Risk averse or risk-taking?
“Safety-first approach at all times but especially in today’s highly manipulated markets. Absolutely risk averse because I don’t like to lose.”

How would you invest $10,000 in 2014?  

“Well whether it is $10,000, or 100,000 million dollars I would invest it the same way. I would start with what we call the 50-40-10 approach. It is a quantitative model based on risk parity that I have pioneered and the reason I would do that is because I know this is a safety first orientation – it is far less volatile than traditional diversification,  it offers me higher income and a bigger upside.”

Where would you avoid putting your money in 2014?
Twitter. Facebook."

What is the best investment advice you ever received?
“This is courtesy of my grandma Mimi, who was a very successful global investor in her own right before the term even existed. She was widowed at a young age and had a meager life insurance settlement, and she turned that into enough to live comfortably for the rest of her life.

She impressed upon me at the tender age of 15 that the world is bigger than your garage. What she meant by that is there are always markets and products and people that are on the move producing profits that are far beyond your ability to recognize and see them on a daily basis.

So, if you want to build your wealth you have to make a point of seeking them out and that is a habit I continue to this day. I travel extensively and believe in boots on the ground.”

Who do you follow for investment advice?
“I don’t think there is anybody better than seeing what is ahead than legendary investor Jim Rogers and Sir Richard Branson.”

By Daniela Cambone dcambone@kitco.com and Sarah Benali sbenali@kitco.com

Avoid Fixed Income: iiTrader

Expert: Rich Ilczyszyn

Claim to Fame: Founder & Chief Market Strategist of iiTrader, appears regularly on Kitco & CNBC

What type of investor do you consider yourself?“I am more of a trader than investor.

I use fundamentals for my thesis, however I use technical analysis to enter and exit the markets. The most important part of investing or trading is to have a process and staying disciplined enough to stick to it.

For traders like me, it doesn't matter if the market goes up or down –‘It’s being on the right side.’”

How would you invest $10,000 in 2014?

30% Equities
20% Short Bonds
20% Cash
15% Emerging Markets
9% Real Estate
6% Metals

Where would you avoid putting your money in 2014?
"I would not add to ‘Fixed Income.’

I believe yields and rates have bottomed and will continue higher. Fixed income will not perform in a rising rate economy. We've seen a record outflows from some of the top Bond funds in the last several months and expect the trend to continue."

What is the best investment advice you ever received?
"As simple as it sounds: ‘The trend is your friend.’

The way investor's make most bang for the buck is being on the right side of a multiyear trade and letting it run."

Who do you follow for investment advice?
"Warren Buffett, Jim Rogers."

By Daniela Cambone dcambone@kitco.com and Sarah Benali sbenali@kitco.com

Gold & Silver Could Rise Sooner: Aden Sisters

Expert: Pamela and Mary Anne Aden

Mary Anne Aden (left), Pamela Aden (right)

Claim To Fame:  Co-editors and publishers of The Aden Forecast

What type of investor do you consider yourself?
"Through trial and error, we’ve found that the best profits are made when investing for the longer-term.

These are usually major market moves that last at least one to two years, and sometimes longer. Our strategy is to get in early near the bottom and then sell near the top. Basically, you want to stay with the up move for as long as it lasts, investing in the lion’s share of the rise.

We use both fundamental and technical analysis. Our technical indicators are the key to identifying buy and sell areas. Ideally, the fundamental factors and the technicals will coincide. When they do, it's the best combination and it reduces your risk."

How would you invest $10,000 in 2014?       

50% in Equities*
30% in Real Estate
10% in Cash (strong currency like the euro)
10% in Gold & Silver

“Once the metals markets start rising, we’d raise the metals portion to 20%, which would also include some of the gold shares with the best upside potential.”

*Telecom, retail, tech and transport stocks.

Where would you avoid putting your money in 2014?
“Despite low interest rates, we’d avoid the government bond market. It’s been volatile and choppy, and this will likely continue as we move into 2014.”

What is the best investment advice you ever received?
“Some of the advice that has stood the test of time is:

  1. Cut your losses and let your profits run.
  2. When in doubt, get out.
  3. Sometimes things won't make sense. That's because markets lead, and the reasons will become obvious in time.
  4. Don't ever doubt your own indicators. It's a big mistake to argue with the market. If the market doesn't do what you think it should do, go with it because the market will always win.
  5. Leave your ego at the door.
  6. Stay humble.”

Who do you follow for investment advice?
"Some of our favorites are Richard Russell and Harry Schultz. Their experience is priceless and we have a great deal of respect for them. Chris Weber and Steve Sjuggerud are very good and informative. The same is true of Jeff Clark and Chuck Butler. For a global overview and information we like The Economist."

By Daniela Cambone dcambone@kitco.com and Sarah Benali sbenali@kitco.com

Gold & Silver Should Bottom In Q1 2014: Wagner

Expert: Gary Wagner

Claim to Fame: Publisher of the Gold Forecast & Star of Chart This! on Kitco News

What type of investor do you consider yourself? 
"I consider myself to be a highbred technician. It’s my belief that it is fundamentals and not technical indicators which affect prices. Technical indicators are simply a distillation of market sentiment.

Therefore, we look at fundamental indicators to ascertain the big picture and primary direction long-term. We then use technical indicators to guide our entry and exit points into the market.”

Risk Averse vs. Risk-taking? 
“I do not believe it is possible to remove risk and maintain profit potential.

We believe that the most successful trading strategies involve longer-term trends.”

How would you invest $10,000 in 2014?       

50-65% in Equities
10-15% in Precious Metals*
20% in Cash

“It is my current belief that we should see prices in gold and silver bottom through the first quarter of 2014.”

*Looks to dollar cost average should both gold and silver continue to trade under pressure.

Where would you avoid putting your money in 2014?
"The investments I would look to avoid in 2014 are those sectors that rely on rising interest rates to profit.

I think that investing in gold and silver could have excellent returns if purchased at the right time. In other words, it’s going to be the identification of bottoms in the precious metals markets that will determine profit potential.”

What is the best investment advice you ever received?
“The best investment advice I ever received was to invest in sectors that you have intrinsic knowledge of. Take your life experience, your current vocation, and apply that knowledge to your investments.”

Who do you follow for investment advice?
"I look at investment advice through the eyes of a statistician, and those who have a long-term track record with performance above the norm are the advisors that warrant our attention.

That being said, I would much rather look at the raw data and extrapolate an investment model myself."

By Daniela Cambone dcambone@kitco.com and Sarah Benali sbenali@kitco.com

Gold, Silver & Copper Could Fall By 20% In March: Gurwitz

Expert: David Gurwitz

Claim to Fame: Managing Director for Charles Nenner Research & accomplished concert pianist

What type of investor do you consider yourself?
"I am definitely technical although we consider the cycle based technicals we have to be fundamental.”

Risk-averse vs. risk taking?
"Some things I’m scared of, some things I’m willing to take the risk if the cycles are bottoming or topping. Taking a risk with a stop, I feel very comfortable.”

How would you invest $10,000 in 2014?       
"First thing I would tell you is I think bio-tech and tech are good. Just in general, bio tech is going to be good.

Certain mobile tech looks good; certain energy and insurance like AIG looks good according to us. Insurers look pretty good. Companies will look to buy dividends and cash flow, so M&A will be active.

Also, the dollar index should start the year rising and then turn down later in 2014."

*Gurwitz did not provide percent allocations.

Precious Metals?
"No. [Gold, silver and even copper] can fall by 20% by March. We see a bottom forming but it could be a short-term bottom. So the answer is no, I wouldn’t touch that stuff now. Inflation is not an issue yet.

We’re calling a bottom in gold soon, according to the research, so I feel it could be a trade.”

Where would you avoid putting your money in 2014?
“I would avoid bonds later in the year, but they should be ok to start the year.

Bond prices will be down for the next three decades - like they were up for the last three decades.”

What is the best investment advice you ever received?
“The best investment advice I’ve ever received is ‘don’t think you’re so smart.’ And I listened to that very carefully; I try to find a lot of smart people.

So, don’t be arrogant is the best investment advice.”

Who do you follow for investment advice?
“Charles Nenner. The research center of Charles Nenner has a great track record.”

By Daniela Cambone dcambone@kitco.com and Sarah Benali sbenali@kitco.com

US Dollar & Bonds To Implode Says Grandich

Expert: Peter Grandich

Claim to Fame: Publisher of The Grandich Letter

What type of investor do you consider yourself? 
“Many years ago, Wall Street realized it couldn’t use the word ‘gambling’ so they replaced it with ‘speculating’ but they’re one in the same. I’m a gambler/speculator.

While I do employ technical charts at times, most of my ‘speculations’ are derived from fundamental analysis. I’m a long-term speculator for the most part.”

How would you invest $10,000 in 2014?

50% in Precious Metals
25% in Equities (outside North America)
25% in Cash (Canadian Dollars)

Where would you avoid putting your money in 2014?
“U.S. bonds and the dollar are not a question of if they implode, but when they do. So, I avoid them all together.”

What is the best investment advice you ever received?
“I have tried to remember 3 Golden rules:

1) It’s better to be a year too early than a day too late.
2) Hope is a wonderful spiritual strategy but a lousy investment one.
3) There are bulls, bears and pigs; the bulls and bears will each have their day but the pigs always end up at the slaughter house.”

Who do you follow for investment advice?
“My one and only financial mentor is Frank Congilose author of the books Discovering Responsible Wealth and An Entrepreneur’s Guide to Responsible Wealth.”

By Daniela Cambone dcambone@kitco.com and Sarah Benali sbenali@kitco.com

Ron Paul To Avoid Stocks & Bonds

Expert: Ron Paul

Claim to Fame: Former Congressman & U.S. Presidential Candidate

How would you invest $10,000 in 2014?

"I do like real estate.

I [also] like precious metals for the safety and security, and that’s generally where I’ve been. It’s easier for me to say how I wouldn’t spend my ten thousand dollars or my 100 thousand dollars.”

*Paul did not provide percent allocations.

Where would you avoid putting your money in 2014?
“I’d avoid [the stock market] and I guess I wouldn’t buy Government Bonds either.

Our currency is weak but it hasn’t tumbled in the last year, but I wouldn’t want to hold my extra money in dollars or in government debt. That’s just looking for trouble.”

What is the best investment advice you ever received?
“Not to overplay the speculation.

It’s not to pretend I can predict those short-term swings. People are capable of doing this if they’re in the market. They can buy, sell, and trade all the time, but for me, I just don’t pretend that I can do that.

So, I look more at what I need to do in my price average.”

By Daniela Cambone dcambone@kitco.com and Sarah Benali sbenali@kitco.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.
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