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Survey Participants Split On Views For Gold Price Direction Next Week

Friday May 23, 2014 12:03 PM

(Kitco News) - The Kitco News Gold Survey shows another week of split opinions between members forecasting prices for next week, with participants only nominally bullish, and barely that.

Out of 33 participants, 22 responded this week. Of those, nine see prices higher, seven see prices down and six see prices trading sideways or are neutral. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical chart analysts.

Last week, survey participants looked for prices to fall this week. As of 11:30 a.m. EDT, Comex gold for June delivery was down about $1 for the week.

Those who see higher prices said they wouldn’t want to be short gold going into the weekend.

“Global monetary factors in particular continue to favor gold.  In addition, geopolitical risk remains high, particularly as the Ukraine elections approach, and, longer-term, Russia and China cozy up, a significant long-term global game-changer to which Washington appears oblivious,” said Adrian Day, chairman and chief executive officer, Adrian Day Asset Management.

Those who see weaker gold prices said a slowly improving U.S. economy and a lack of physical demand will weigh on gold.

“I continue to be bearish on gold at these levels. The language we continue to hear from the Fed (Federal Reserve) governors is that it is their belief that the economy is continuing to grow at levels which they perceive are quite positive. I believe that their posture regarding economic policy will reflect this view. I am still following the gold forward rates closely as I believe that they will continue to show us the direction for gold. The fact that these rates are now out of backwardation and in positive territory signals to me that the physical buying is waning at current levels. Our major support continues to be around the $1,270 level. A breach of this level should attract fresh sellers,” said Kevin Grady, owner, Phoenix Futures and Options LLC.

Participants who are neutral on gold or see prices trading sideways said they wanted to wait to see what the outcome is for the Ukrainian elections.

Kitco Gold Survey

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By Debbie Carlson of Kitco News; dcarlson@kitco.com
Follow me on Twitter at @dcarlsonkitco



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