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TD Securities Lifts Gold, Palladium Price Forecasts, Cuts Silver
By Kitco NewsTuesday August 26, 2014 8:59 AM
(Kitco News) - TD Securities increased its 2014 gold and palladium price forecasts, while cutting their outlooks for silver and platinum.
The Canadian bank increased its third quarter estimate for gold by $35 an ounce to $1,295 and its fourth quarter estimate by $15 to $1,265. They lifted their annual 2014 average price by $13 to $1,285. For palladium, TDS boosted its third quarter estimate by $50 to $875, and the fourth quarter estimate by $25, also to $875. They lifted their annual 2014 average price by $19 to $827.
“While our fundamental view has not changed, the fourth quarter 2014 gold level was upgraded slightly to reflect recent positive price action caused by Middle East and Russia tensions and choppy U.S. economic data,” the bank said.
TDS said they raised their palladium forecasts for the short and medium term “materially in response to strong global auto catalyst demand, lower-than-expected South African supply and a deteriorating supply outlook for Russian production due to international sanctions.”
Although the bank raised its third quarter estimate for silver by 5 cents to $19.85, they lowered their fourth quarter estimate by 39 cents to $19.25. They reduced their annual 2014 average price by 7 cents to $19.81. For platinum TDS cut its third quarter estimate by $135 to $1,465 and the fourth quarter estimate by $190, to $1,485. They lowered their annual 2014 average price by $82 to $1,456.
“We downgraded silver due to technical developments and an increasingly apparent tilt toward short positioning,” TDS said, adding that doubts about surrounding European industrial demand prompted their cuts to platinum outlooks.
TDS raised their copper outlook by 6 cents a pound or $132 a metric ton to $3.18 and $7,011, respectively, for the third quarter. They left their fourth quarter forecast unchanged at $3.10 and $6,834. They lifted their 2014 forecast by 2 cents or $33 a ton to $3.32 and $7,328.
The bank raised their aluminum third quarter price forecast by 5 cents a pound or $110 a metric ton to 89 cents and $1,962, and their fourth quarter price by 10 cents and $220 to 94 cents and $2,072 respectively. They increased the 2014 forecast by 4 cents or $83 to 84 cents or $1,846.
“While we are still quite negative on aluminum, the short-term price projections were upgraded in order to reflect stronger-than-expected investor borrowing in the summer and the constraint on deliveries from exchange stockpiles to the market,” they said.
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Weaker Prices Forecast For Gold Market – Survey Participants
By Debbie Carlson of Kitco News; dcarlson@kitco.com
Follow me on Twitter @dcarlsonkitco
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