EDITOR'S NOTE: Don’t Miss a Beat! Sign-up for the Kitco News Weekly Roundup– our newsletter highlighting our most popular features, articles and videos! Register Here

Citi: Chinese Copper Imports Likely To Keep Rising Through 4Q

Monday October 13, 2014 11:23 AM

Chinese copper imports picked up last month and may continue to do so for the rest of the year, says Citi Research. Chinese imports of the red metal rose to around 390,000 metric tons in September, a rise from 340,000 and 343,000 tons seen in the previous two months although a year-on-year decline of 14.8%, Citi says. “Given September is typically a stronger month seasonally for imports, this represents only a slight increase (month-on-month) on a seasonally adjusted basis,” Citi says. “We continue to believe that Chinese copper consumption will improve through Q4, supporting copper imports through the remainder of the year.” China’s demand is critical to the global copper market since the country is the world’s No. 1 consumer of the red metal.

By Allen Sykora of Kitco News; asykora@kitco.com

 

Commerzbank: Gold Lifted By Dollar, FOMC Comments, Equities

Monday October 13, 2014 8:21 AM

Gold has been stronger as a new week gets under way, with the Comex December futures hitting a high of $1,238 an ounce that was its firmest level since Sept. 17. Other precious metals followed. “Precious metals are finding support from the still weaker U.S. dollar, as well as from statements by a number of FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) members,” Commerzbank says. “They are warning against the consequences of weak global growth – driven by Europe – and an overly strong U.S. dollar and are in favor of normalizing U.S. monetary policy later than previously anticipated. In addition, rating agency S&P has lowered France’s outlook to ‘negative’ (on Friday) and unexpectedly stripped Finland of its ‘AAA’ rating. Furthermore, gold is profiting from the weak equity markets.” As of 8:11 a.m. EDT, December gold was up $6 to $1,227.70 an ounce. The euro was up to $1.26840 from $1.26274 late Friday. The S&P 500 futures were up modestly but this follows two straight days of sharp declines.

By Allen Sykora of Kitco News; asykora@kitco.com

 

Commerzbank: Chinese Trade Data Underpin LME Base Metals

Monday October 13, 2014 8:21 AM

Base metals have been buoyed by “surprisingly good” Chinese trade data, says Commerzbank. Chinese exports rose 15.3% year-on-year in September, topping estimates of around 12%, while imports rose 7% when forecasts were for a decline. “Copper for example has risen to around $6,700 per (metric) ton,” Commerzbank says. “Iron ore traded on the exchange in Singapore is also climbing, and has regained – at least for the time being – the $80 per ton mark.” Among the commodities, Commerzbank cites data showing that China imported 84.7 million tons of iron ore in September, 13.6% more than the same month last year. “At the same time, this constituted the second-highest monthly import figure ever,” the bank says. “Although copper imports also picked up slightly, they remain only moderate at around 390,000 tons. Chinese traders evidently took advantage of the fact that prices came under – in some cases considerable – pressure recently to buy up commodities opportunistically.” As of 8:10 a.m. EDT, three-months copper was up $73.50 to $6,718.50 per ton on the London Metal Exchange, while aluminum was up $4 to $1,934. Nickel, zinc and lead were also stronger, while tin was steady.

By Allen Sykora of Kitco News; asykora@kitco.com

 

UBS: ‘Gold Is At A Crossroads’

Monday October 13, 2014 8:21 AM

UBS says “gold is at a crossroads.” The market has successfully defended a test of the 2013 low near $1,182, the bank says. Now, it remains to be seen whether the precious metal has the “firepower” to challenge the psychologically important $1,250 area, remain range-trade around current levels or whether the rally ends up being a selling opportunity to sell below $1,182 again. The bank sees potential for further upside and a short-lived rally. Renewed concerns about global economic growth, along with U.S. dollar pullback and softer stocks in recent days are helping gold, UBS says. So has the return of physical demand. “Our one-month forecast remains at $1,250 and we're quite comfortable with that,” the bank says. “Enough returning momentum could give some additional upside beyond $1,250. But ultimately, we think any rally will be short-lived; played purely due to positioning extremes and with interest beyond that factor quite subdued and so we also remain comfortable with our three-month forecast of $1,200.” The issues that dragged gold lower in September -- a higher U.S. dollar, rising Treasury yields and a hawkish Federal Reserve – are all likely to return to help drag gold lower again, UBS says.

By Allen Sykora of Kitco News; asykora@kitco.com

 

Barclays: Modest Support From Physical Gold Demand

Monday October 13, 2014 8:21 AM

Physical gold demand has materialized at lower price levels in recent days, says Barclays. “The Chinese market returned last Wednesday, and buying was healthy but not aggressive,” the bank says. “The rolling monthly average gold volume traded on the Shanghai Gold Exchange rose to its highest level since May 2013 and has been firming since price elasticity increased in August.” Still, the bank notes, daily volumes are roughly half the level seen during the sharp pick-up in demand in response to the price decline in April 2013. “In line with our expectations, buying in India has started to improve m/m (month-on-month) as we head towards the key festivals, prompting gold buying before the wedding season, but volumes have not been exceptional,” Barclays says. “Local traders are still hoping for a pickup in buying in the two weeks leading up to the festival of Diwali, but demand for alternative gifts such as electronics has been competitive.”

By Allen Sykora of Kitco News; asykora@kitco.com

 

INTL FCStone: Gold May Take Cue This Week From Equities, Dollar

Monday October 13, 2014 8:21 AM

Gold’s outlook may hinge on both the equity markets and U.S. dollar over the course of the week, says Edward Meir, commodities consultant with INTL FCStone. “We suspect that both will continue to drop over the short-term, offering a measure of support to prices,” he says. “In addition, gold’s technical picture looks slightly more constructive, with the short-term downtrend line now being broken and the relative strength index -- a measure of overbought/oversold conditions -- also at a neutral reading, suggesting that we still could push a little higher from here.” He adds, however, that other precious metals other precious metals may not automatically follow gold closely, as they appear to have been weakening due to “sloppier global macro numbers we have been getting lately” in terms of indus­trial production. “In addition, car sales in both the U.S. and China seem to have decelerated from their summer highs, while European demand, while rising on a year-over-year basis, remains too weak to move the platinum needle on its own.”

By Allen Sykora of Kitco News; asykora@kitco.com

 

 

 

Precious Metal Charts

Click to see this Precious Metal chart
  1. 24h
  2. 30D
  3. 60D
  4. 6M
  5. 1Y
 

Interactive Chart