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Kitco Readers Would Vote A Resounding Yes In Swiss Gold Referendum

By Kitco News
Friday November 28, 2014 2:18 PM

(Kitco News) - If Kitco Readers had their way the Swiss National Bank would already be preparing to buy gold ahead of the official vote on Sunday.

For the past week Kitco News’s reader’s survey has been asking visitors how they would vote in Switzerland’s Nov. 30 gold referendum. Out of 353 out of 309 participants, or 88%, said they would vote yes; 30 people, or 8%, said they would vote no and only 14, or 4%, said they were undecided.

Unfortunately, Kitco readers will probably be disappointed on Sunday as analysts have explained that it is unlikely that the vote will pass. Analysts have also noted that the gold market has already priced in a “no” victory.

On Nov. 19, the latest poll, conducted by gfs.bern, showed that in Switzerland only 38% supported the “Save Our Gold” initiative, which would force the SNB to boost its gold holding to 20% of its official reserves, repatriate all of its gold back to Switzerland and not allow the central bank to sell any of its gold. According to the gfs.bern poll, 47% opposed the referendum and 15% were undecided.

Not only would the vote have to earn 50% of the popular vote, but analysts have pointed out another hurdle is the fact that it also has to pass in the majority of cantons, which represent the different regions in the country.

Although the “yes” side appears to be losing momentum into the weekend, analysts still aren’t ready to completely dismiss the idea that the vote fails. Recently some analysts have said that a surprise “yes” win could push the gold price up by $50.

Currently, Switzerland owns 1,040 metric tons of gold, which represents 7.5% of the country’s official reserves. Estimates for how much gold the SNB would have to buy in the next five years if the vote passes range from 1,500 metric tons to 1,730 tons.


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By Neils Christensen of Kitco News; nchristensen@kitco.com

 

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.
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