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Gold Firms, Bucking US Dollar Gains

By Kira Brecht of Kitco News
Monday January 5, 2015 9:18 AM

(Kitco News) - Comex February gold futures are firmer in early Monday action as the yellow metal bucks the strength in the U.S. dollar. Generally strength in the U.S. dollar is a negative factor for gold.

Recent action in gold has been choppy, but the near term trend pattern off the November low remains bullish for gold, while the intermediate term trend outlook remains weak.

Taking a look at the bigger picture, for now, a near term low has formed in the gold market at the Nov. 7 low at $1,132 per ounce, see Figure 1 below. A volatile pattern of minor higher daily highs and higher daily lows is seen on the chart off the November low. But, the larger multi-month pattern seen on the daily chart remains bearish.

The gold market faces an initial strong resistance barrier at the Dec. 9 high at $1,239 (Point A) and then the Oct. 21 high at $1,256.20 (Point B). Those are important levels for the bulls to monitor near term. Gains above $1,239 would be a bullish signal and would open the door to continuation of the current short-term uptrend. While if gold were to rally above the October high in the days or weeks ahead it would break the intermediate term downtrend pattern and would unleash a stronger rally move.

For now, the gold market is holding up well, despite a fresh surge higher in the U.S. dollar, which is an encouraging signal for the near term trend. However, momentum studies are lackluster, with the 14-day relative strength index (RSI), at mid-range levels.

On the downside, short-term support lies at the Jan. 2 low at $1,167.30, which is gold's most recent swing low. As long as gold holds firm above that support zone, the near term outlook is sideways to higher. Declines under $1,167.30 would be a near term weak signal and would leave the gold market vulnerable to downside testing back toward the Dec. 1 low at $1,141.70.

Bottom line? Gold is not in a strongly trending mode. Recent activity has seen the market build up a congestion zone, with choppy trade. But, the short-term trend pattern is positive and a minor low has formed at the $1,132 zone. Given the intermarket dynamics of the stronger dollar, gold is holding up relatively well.

By Kira Brecht, Kitco.com
Follow her on Twitter @KiraBrecht



Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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