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Gold Survey Shows No Clear Direction For Prices Next Week

(Kitco News) - A mixed U.S. employment report for April is helping the gold market end a four-week losing streak but the Kitco News Main Street vs Wall Street gold survey shows mixed expectations in the near term as prices appear to be firmly stuck in a range.

For Kitco’s online survey, 208 people voted; of those, 93 participants, or 45%, expect to see higher gold prices next week while 75 people, or 36%, see lower prices and 40, or 19%, are neutral.

This week, out of 33 market experts contacted, 21 responded; of those, four participants, or 19%, see higher prices, seven experts, or 33%, see lower prices and 10, or 48%, are neutral on the gold market. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical-chart analysts.

This week, the previous online survey proved to be the most accurate with 48% of the respondents called for higher prices, while most market professionals were bearish.

Analysts note that the gold market is lacking any clear conviction, from either the bull or the bears and economic data is note providing any clear guidance when it comes to an expected rate hike from the Federal Reserve

Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, said that he is slightly bullish on gold next week but is expecting it to only test the top part of its current trading range between $1,170 an ounce and $1,221 an ounce.

He added that the price will continue to react to the data, which, at best, he describes has been mixed.

“The data has illuminated an early rate hike but it hasn’t pushed expectations out past September,” he said. “That is why gold remains stuck.”

Other analysts will be looking to outside markets to determine gold next move. Adam Button, currency analyst at Forexlive.com said that he is bearish on gold prices next week as he expects to see a rebound in the U.S. dollar.

Ted Sloup, senior market strategist at iiTrader, said that he is neutral on the gold market but cautions that the “tape” or technical picture looks heavy.

“Gold has had every reason to break higher and it didn’t so that is an indication that prices might want to trade lower,” he said.

However, Sloup said he would need to see a strong break below $1,175 an ounce to be convinced that prices are moving lower. He added that the technical chart shows a narrowing triangle pattern and the longer prices consolidate the bigger the breakout will be.

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By Neils Christensen of Kitco News; nchristensen@kitco.com
Follow Neils Christensen @neils_C

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.
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