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Main Street Remains Bearish On Gold, Wall Street Shifts To Neutral

(Kitco News) - The majority of Main Street gold investors remain bearish on the gold market next week while market professional are more neutral, according to Kitco News’ Wall Street vs Main Street Weekly Gold Survey.

This is the third consecutive week retail investors have been negative on the yellow metal, despite a 1.5% rally Thursday that is helping to push gold prices to a second straight positive weekly close. At the same time, gold analysts are sitting on the sidelines waiting to see how the Greek funding crisis evolves.

This week, 388 people participated in Kitco’s online survey. Of those 201 participants, or 52%, are bearish on gold next week; 135 people, or 35%, are bullish on gold and 52, or 13%, are neutral.

The results of the professional survey were much less conclusive. Out of 33 market experts contacted, 18 responded; of those, 9 participants, or 50%, are neutral on gold next week. Seven experts, or 39%, see higher prices and two, or 11%, see lower prices. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical-chart analysts.

A major concerns for gold remains the U.S. dollar, which looks to strengthen as the Federal Reserve is forecasted to raise interest rates later this year; however, countering the U.S. dollar is the safe-haven bid for gold driven by geopolitical uncertainty from Greece’s inability to secure new bailout finding from its European creditors. Greece’s time is quickly running out as it has to pay €1.5 billion to the International Monetary Fund by the end of the month.

Adam Button, currency analyst for Forexlive.com, is in the bearish camp, but admits that the margin for error is “razor thin.”

“If a deal is struck, risk trades will surge and the demand for safety will wane and hurt gold. If talks break down, then there is no doubt Greece will default and the knee jerk will be higher in gold,” he said.

Ken Morrison, editor of the Morrrison on the Market, said that prices could push higher next week with a target of $1,210 an ounce; however, he adds that level could attract some new short sellers to enter the marketplace.

“Gold remains in a long-term downtrend and the first resistance on the downtrend line connecting the January and May highs comes in at $1210,” he said. “I expect this rally, dominated by short-covering, will stall without crossing the downtrend line.”

Richard Baker, editor of the Eureka Miner Report, said his target for gold next week is $1,205.80 an ounce as the gold market will continue to benefit from expectations that the Federal Reserve’s trajectory on interest rates will remain low.

“Gold still trades as a currency with low price volatility. Amazingly, [Friday] gold continues to have the lowest 1-month volatility compared to euro, yen and key commodities,” he said.

Although the majority of retail investors are bearish on gold, there are still some who see higher prices.

Peter Gegraaf, a commentator on Kitco.com, said that June is historically gold’s slowest period and he is expecting prices to push higher as the summer season approaches.

Kitco Gold Survey

Wall Street

Bullish
Bearish
Neutral

VS

Main Street

Bullish
Bearish
Neutral

By Neils Christensen of Kitco News; nchristensen@kitco.com
Follow Neils Christensen @neils_C

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.
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