Gold Sees Corrective Pullback Amid Bearish Outside MarketsBy Jim Wyckoff
Thursday August 13, 2015 13:46
(Kitco News) - Gold prices ended the U.S. day session moderately lower Thursday, after poking to a three-week high in overnight action. A corrective, profit-taking pullback was featured after decent gains were scored earlier this week. Also, safe-haven gold was dented as world markets were calmer Thursday and showed much less risk aversion than the previous two days. December Comex gold was last down $8.60 at $1,115.00 an ounce. September Comex silver was last down $0.086 at $15.39 an ounce.
The key “outside markets” were also in a bearish posture for gold and silver on this day, as the U.S. dollar index was higher and crude oil prices were lower.
An upbeat U.S. retail sales report also limited buying interest in gold during the U.S. day session. Sales increased by 0.6% in July from June, which analysts deemed a fairly good number and which was also in line with forecasts.
The World Gold Council on Thursday said global gold demand declined by 12%, to a six-year low, in the second quarter, mainly due to less consumer demand from China and India. The WGC said gold demand should rise into the end of this year, however.
The Chinese government on Thursday again devalued its currency, the yuan, against the U.S. dollar, but to a smaller degree, after dropping its value against the greenback on Tuesday and Wednesday. So far the yuan has depreciated by around 3% against the dollar this week. Chinese central bank officials said Thursday the value of the yuan will stabilize and that eventually their currency will appreciate in value. The Chinese officials said reports they want the value of the yuan to fall by 10% were nonsense.
China has been implementing economic and monetary measures to stimulate its slowing economy. China’s devaluation of the yuan this week has called into question whether the U.S. Federal Reserve will be able to raise interest rates as soon as it wants. The yuan devaluation, slumping raw commodity markets, and weaker economic data coming out of the European Union all hint of deflationary price pressures building. The Fed does not want to contribute to that scenario, which would seemingly be the case if it initiated a rate hike, which in turn would likely see a further appreciation of the U.S. dollar. This thinking has pressured the U.S. dollar index this week.
The London P.M. gold fix is $1,116.75 versus the previous A.M. fix of $1,117.35.
Technically, December gold futures prices closed nearer the session low. A corrective pullback and chart consolidation was featured following recent gains. Gold bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, price action this week has produced a bullish upside “breakout” from the recent sideways trading range at lower levels, which is a clue that a near-term market bottom is in place. Bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,133.80. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of $1,073.70. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,126.30 and then at $1,133.80. First support is seen at $1,110.00 and then at $1,100.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 2.5
September silver futures prices closed near mid-range today. Silver bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a bullish rounding-bottom reversal pattern has formed on the daily bar chart, to suggest a market bottom is in place. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $16.00 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the July low of $14.33. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $15.57 and then at $15.90. Next support is seen at today’s low of $15.265 and then at $15.065. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.
September N.Y. copper closed up 30 points at 235.30 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range. Copper bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 245.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 225.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 238.25 cents and then at 240.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 232.60 cents and then at this week’s contract low of 229.25 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.