Gold Down, Hits 10-Mo. Low; No Help From Rallying Oil
Thursday December 01, 2016 13:34
(Kitco News) - Gold prices ended the U.S. day session modestly lower Thursday and sunk to another 10-month low. The technical postures for both gold and silver markets remain solidly bearish. Fundamentally, traders and investor optimism remain generally upbeat and that’s also negative for safe-haven gold. February Comex gold was last down $4.50 an ounce at $1,169.40. March Comex silver was last up $0.043 at $16.525 an ounce.
The key "outside markets" on Thursday were in a bullish posture for the precious metals markets, but that did no good for gold and did little for silver. Such suggests the chart-based sellers are in firm control of these market at present. The crude oil market was again sharply higher and added to Wednesday’s big gains, in the wake of the OPEC oil-production-cutting agreement. Oil prices have rallied around 15% in value in only two sessions. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index was lower today on a corrective pullback from recent gains. The greenback bulls still have the solid near-term technical advantage as U.S. dollar index prices last week hit a 13-year high.
The next big news event for the world market place is Sunday’s Italian referendum on constitutional reforms. A “no” vote on the reforms could eventually put Italy in violation of European Union rules. A no vote could also support the gold market as uncertainty would likely be keener among Europeans.
World bond markets remain in focus as yields continue on the rise. U.S. 10-year yields have risen to 2.4% late this week. Reports said the U.S. bond market in November suffered its worst month in seven years. German government bonds are yielding right around 0.3%, which is still a historically low number. However, just several weeks ago German Bund yields were in negative territory. Rising bond yields hint at the potential for rising inflationary price pressures down the road. Historically, inflation has been the friend of the precious metals market bulls.
Traders and investors are keeping an eye on India’s stock and financial markets. The Indian stock market has dropped about 7% the past month. India’s prime minister has also initiated extreme measures to crack down on black market currency transactions. There has even been talk that India could ban gold imports in its efforts to curb illegal currency transactions.
Traders and investors are awaiting Friday morning’s U.S. jobs report for November from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number is forecast to be up around 180,000.
(Note: Follow me on Twitter--@jimwyckoff--for breaking market news.)
Technically, February gold futures prices closed near mid-range and hit another 10-month low today. The gold bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and have gained more power late this week. Prices are in a five-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Gold bulls' next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $1,200.00. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at $1,150.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,178.40 and then at $1,190.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,162.20 and then at $1,150.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0
March silver futures prices closed near mid-range today. The silver market bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $17.50 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $16.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $16.635 and then at $16.83. Next support is seen at last week’s low of $16.245 and then at $16.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.
March N.Y. copper closed up 30 points at 263.60 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The copper bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. However, recent price action raises the specter of a bearish double-top reversal pattern playing out on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of 275.30 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 250.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 267.70 cents and then at 270.00 cents. First support is seen at 260.00 cents and then at this week’s low of 255.05 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.