Kitco News Gold Survey: Wall St. Sees Higher To Lower Prices; Main St. Bullish
(Kitco News) - Wall Street can’t decide between higher or neutral, while Main Street remains bullish in Kitco News’ weekly survey on short-term gold prices.
The number of sideways Wall Street votes was higher than normal this week. A total of 19 market professionals took part in the survey, with eight participants, or 42%, voting neutral and the same number for higher. The remaining three votes, or 16%, said lower.
Meanwhile, 726 votes were cast in an online Main Street poll. A total of 425 voters, or 59%, looked for gold to rise in the next week. Another 206, or 28%, said lower, while 95, or 13%, were neutral.
For the trading week now winding down, 69% of Wall Street voters called for gold to decline, while 44% of Main Street respondents were bullish. Around 11 a.m. EDT, Comex December gold was down by 0.4% for the week so far to $1,267.30 an ounce.
So far in 2017, but not counting the current week, Wall Street forecasters collectively were right 24 of 42 times for a winning percentage of 57%. Main Street was right 26 of 41 times for 63%.
“A weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report has backed the 10-year Treasury further away from 2.4% and the U.S. dollar index from 95,” said Richard Baker, editor of the Eureka Miner Report, who looks for gold prices to rise to around $1,285.
He later added: “Gold price was steady around $1,278 per ounce following the [U.S.] labor report and its price floor supported by recent announcements from central banks. With the selection of Jerome Powell as the new Fed chair, the U.S. is expected to continue tightening albeit at a gradual pace.”
Adam Button, currency analyst with ForexLive.com, also looks for gold to rise.
“I expect hiccups on the U.S. tax plan to be the driver in the week ahead,” he said. “The dollar is likely to slump and gold should stay supported.”
Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, also said higher, citing raised geopolitical risks due to factors such as North Korea as U.S. President Donald Trump prepares to embark on a trip to Asia.
Darin Newsom, DTN senior analyst, is among the many Wall Street voters who see a sideways market. The technically oriented analyst said gold needs to either push above $1,300 to create some bullish momentum or push below the October lows in the low $1,260s to find bearish momentum.
Kevin Grady, president of Phoenix Futures and Options LLC, is also neutral, commenting that gold’s pullback this fall seems to have stalled in a band of chart support from roughly $1,268 down to $1,262. “It doesn’t seem like the market wants to crack that,” he said, adding that a December U.S. interest-rate hike is already largely factored into pricews.
Afshin Nabavi, head of trading at trading house MKS (Switzerland) SA, also sees gold continuing to consolidate. “Unless something unexpected happens [in the news flow], I think we continue to trade in a range of $1,265 to $1,285,” Nabavi said.
Meanwhile, Ralph Preston, principal with Heritage West Financial, was among those calling for the precious metal to ease, as he is “looking for a firming U.S. dollar to kick the stool out from underneath the price of gold.”