Gold's Rally Targets Major Resistance Between $1,357-$1,380 - Saxo Bank
(Kitco News) - The rally behind gold prices is targeting “a major band of resistance between $1,357 and $1,380,” said head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank Ole Hansen, adding that if breached, gold could climb above $1,450.
The environment looks bullish for gold, mainly due to inflation expectations, a weak U.S. dollar, overall commodity price trends as well as geopolitical and financial risks.
“Gold continues to take aim at the critical area of resistance between $1,350 and $1,380/oz,” Hansen said in a note published on Wednesday. “A break above $1380/oz could (by using Fibonacci retracements of the 2011-15 selloff) see gold target $1,484/oz.”
Spot gold on Kitco.com touched the highest level since August 2016 on Wednesday, last trading at $1,359.10, up 1.35% on the day.
Continued dollar weakness is giving gold the needed underlying support. The U.S. Dollar Index was sharply lower on Wednesday, falling to 3.5-year low, last seen at 89.17, down 1.03% on the day.
“The greenback has been sent tumbling in the wake of comments from U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Mnuchin talking up a weak dollar from a trade perspective,” Hansen said.
Increased market complacency is boosting demand for “tail-end protection and diversification,” which in return is improving demand for gold and pushing prices higher, the note added.
On top of that, geopolitical and economic risks are setting up a very gold-friendly environment.
“Geopolitical risk indicators have increased since Trump took office, driven by the risk of a major diplomatic crisis and his controversial-at-best tweeting habits,” Hansen wrote. “Current focus is on the risk of trade wars, North Korea and Iran versus USA.”
In terms of inflation expectations, the U.S. CPI is settled at around 2%, while rising bond yields are not hurting gold, Hansen explained. “Both nominal and breakeven yields have moved higher thereby leaving the key-for-gold real yield range-bound,” he said.